The second round of tariff negotiations between China and the United States has brought the current A-share and Hong Kong stock markets to a sharp rise, but gold is showing a downward trend today, and the three consecutive declines at the daily level are very obvious, but it has shown a shrinking volume in the short term. Today, it only fell below $3,300 during the trading session and then quickly pulled back.
This shows that a considerable number of gold holders are still maintaining a wait-and-see trend, waiting for the second round of negotiations between China and the United States to be higher than market expectations. If the results come out higher than market expectations, gold may fall to support near $3,250 in the short term.
If it is not higher than market expectations, then the short-term negative for gold seems to be less likely to be negative when the first round of negotiations exceed expectations.
So will the results of subsequent Sino-US tariff negotiations cause major negative news to gold, so that gold falls below $3,000?
I prefer that negotiations on China-US tariffs have always had limited impact on short-term gold, which cannot lead to a sharp drop in gold or suppress the sharp rise in gold. What can really determine the short-term trend of gold is the current debt problem of the US dollar, including the depreciation of the US dollar.
How to solve the problem of US debt of up to 1.2 trillion by the end of June? The market still maintains a wait-and-see trend of the short-term depreciation of the US dollar, which is a long-term positive for gold. As long as this global de-dollarization trend remains unchanged, the logic of central banks in various countries' positions that only buy but not sell gold will always be maintained. Under this trend and background, individuals are more inclined toward a large rise in gold, and will be staged again in the future, but the upward strength may be worse than before.
So even if it cannot continue to rise sharply, the possibility of a sharp decline or even falling below $3,000 is slim. After all, the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts in September has been restarted. The expectation of de-dollarization and the current depreciation of the US dollar will further increase risk aversion sentiment and funds will enter the precious metals market significantly. The subsequent long gold-silver ratio recovery of gold and silver may become a new driving force for the current rise in gold prices.
