A shares: Tomorrow, June 10, an emergency is coming!
The trend of the A-share market today is basically in line with the author's expectations. It has indeed emerged from a wave of opening high and closing high. However, there is a regret that after a wave of rising, it fell into a sideways fluctuation and did not emerge from the second wave of rising. However, the overall bullish atmosphere is still relatively strong.
Before, the author said that after the ChiNext Index broke through the quarterly line, it basically opened up a rising situation. Why?
Because, since the 6th of last month, the ChiNext Index has been running between the quarterly and the annual line. As the annual line continues to move upward and the quarterly line continues to move downward, this space is constantly being compressed. Now a breakthrough has been formed, which is naturally the market for the upward movement of the range.
So, why would tomorrow say that tomorrow, June 10th, an emergency comes?
There are two main reasons.
First of all, the market volume has always been a flaw in the A-share market. Although the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 128.64 billion today, 134.4 billion more than the previous trading day, such a volume is still not enough. There are too many chips above, and there is no large number of market breakthroughs.
Even if you force a breakthrough, it will definitely lead to a divergence. That is to say, at most, it will only break through to the top of the sideways, which is around 3,500 points. If you want to rise, it will be difficult. The divergence will only be more serious and the overall pressure on the index will be greater.
Secondly, let’s take a look at the ChiNext Index.
Because the ChiNext Index is a short-lived market today, the ChiNext Index has formed another gap. Although there is a decline in the trading session, it is still not possible to fill the gap that can open high in the morning.
At the same time, there are multiple gaps below, which makes the next trend of the ChiNext Index even more difficult. A single gap may not be filled, but multiple gaps are likely to be filled, which is one of the things that the author is worried about.
Besides, although the ChiNext Index has broken through the quarterly line and the range, if you look closely, the ChiNext Index has also reached the high point of the previous platform and the chip-intensive area of the previous platform, and the selling pressure here is very large.
At this time, the half-year line is still horizontal above. So, for the ChiNext Index, it will be subject to multiple selling pressure. In the absence of a large amount of trading volume, how can the index complete a reversal market?
Then, tomorrow, it can only be accomplished if the market's daily transaction volume exceeds 1.5 trillion yuan. On the one hand, the increase in volume repairs the divergence, and on the other hand, the increase in volume breaks through the chip-intensive area. Therefore, tomorrow, June 10, the situation is relatively urgent.
Once the volume shrinks, this wave of GEM market is likely to end near the half-year line.
Don't think that you can break through the sideways space of the large range in the short term. This is unlikely. After all, the sideways of this large range lasted for more than 100 trading days. At most, the market this year will only fluctuate back and forth in the large range. At present, it is just a small range market in the large range.
So, in the same sentence, the variable in the market now lies in the turnover. At present, the issue of volume still restricts the short-term trend of the A-share market. Of course, the above is just some of my personal shallow analysis, and the key is still the volume of the market tomorrow.
