Three good news I saw when I woke up this morning:
First, the latest news is that after an important call a few days ago, the first meeting of the economic and trade consultation mechanism between China and the United States will be held in the UK. This is a relatively positive thing, which shows that the problems encountered in previous negotiations are facing the possibility of resolution. Sichuan University also expressed its expectations for this consultation meeting before. I believe it will bring changes to the expectations of the A-share market;
Secondly, Morgan Stanley and HSBC are bullish on Chinese stocks, believing that Chinese stocks will attract more capital inflows in the next 6 to 12 months. I think the views this time are different, and I mention two core points. I think it is worth paying attention to:
One is that the current global investors' positions in Chinese stocks are seriously low, which is correct. After all, everyone has allocated US stocks and European stocks, and Japanese stocks. The reason why funds flow to Chinese stocks is because everyone expects the dollar to weaken and the profit growth of Chinese companies;
The other is that Morgan Stanley is more optimistic about offshore Chinese stocks. What does it mean? It is that it is more optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market. It should be overweight to Hong Kong stocks and ADRs in the short term. The core logic behind this is the expectation of a strengthening RMB. When the US dollar depreciates, the seesaw effect is formed.
I need to emphasize here that no matter how overseas investment banks say it is not important, from my own perspective, I have attached great importance to the allocation of Hong Kong stocks, and I think that the performance of Hong Kong stocks will be better than A-shares in the future. Of course, here we are more optimistic about the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index from the index level. I think the Hang Seng Index should be as favored as everyone's investment in the Nasdaq Index in the future. In my personal asset allocation, Hang Seng Index investment will be a necessary choice for me.
The reason is very simple. In the past, everyone said that the liquidity of Hong Kong stocks is very poor. In fact, there are currently two funds entering Hong Kong stocks in large quantities. One is foreign capital. If foreign capital wants to buy Chinese stocks, it will take the lead in starting from Hong Kong stocks, because Hong Kong stocks are a global market, and the funds are relatively convenient for capital entry and exit, and the other funds are southbound funds, and this scale cannot be underestimated;
The biggest change in this is that the global capital pattern will usher in major changes. With the weakening of the US dollar and the risks faced by the US economy in the future due to high debt, I believe that the stability of China's economy and the high cost-effectiveness of Chinese stocks will sooner or later attract global funds. When global funds come, the entrance is of course the offshore market. At this time, the advantages of Hong Kong stocks will naturally be reflected.
Third, data released by the central bank yesterday showed that gold reserves at the end of May were 73.83 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces from 73.77 million ounces at the end of April, indicating that the central bank increased its holdings of gold again in May;
You can't understand that the international gold price is currently at such a high position. Why is the central bank still continuing to increase its holdings? I think the central bank's increase in holdings of gold is fundamentally different from the investment of ordinary people. The reason why the central bank's increase in holdings is mainly to hedge risks. Under the premise of the depreciation trend of the US dollar and the high risk of US bonds, the continuous increase in holdings of gold at this time can play a diversified risk role.
Of course, it is not only our central banks that are increasing their holdings of gold, but the practices of global central banks are the same. Everyone is worried about the US dollar, and the amount of US bonds is getting higher and higher. This is the biggest uncertainty. At this time, everyone thinks about the scarcity of gold, and it will be revealed. From this perspective, even if they invest in individuals, the probability of gold prices being strong in the future is still relatively high. Even as investment banks say, international gold prices are expected to rise further.
From the perspective of personal investment, international gold prices fluctuate in the future, and I think the probability of opportunities is greater.
Disclaimer: The content in the article is for reference only and does not constitute any operational suggestions or prompts. Please be cautious if there are risks in the stock market and investment!
