Good weekend for all gold investors!
Today is June 7, 2025, and we are the most critical review time of the week.
This week was really thrilling - the gold price ended at $3,311. Behind the seemingly calm number, there is a desperate battle between the bulls and bears at the $3,300 mark. $3,400, two surges and falls, non-farm data triggered market fluctuations, and this weekend is destined to be uneasy.
Today I will take you to peel off the cocoon and see what mystery is hidden in this "$3,300 defense battle".
1. Technical code words: send warning signals from three major cycles
First look at the weekly chart. The inverted hammer line is like a red alarm light, brightly reminding us how heavy the above pressure is. But what is interesting is that the ten-year upward channel is still intact, what does this mean? The general trend has not broken, but it needs to be adjusted in the short term. It's just like a marathon athlete who needs to hydrate in the middle of the journey.
The daily level is more exciting. Shooting stars, superimposed and descending triangle breaks. These two technical forms appear at the same time, which is not common. Simply put, it means: the bulls are weak in rushing, and the bears are starting to counterattack. Especially when the gold price falls below $3,360, the decline rate will significantly accelerate, which is not a good sign.
The four-hour picture is like a sperm patient - MACD, with a dead fork running down, while the RSI is lying in the oversold area, shouting for help. This split state shows us that it may be necessary to rebound in the short term, but after the rebound is over, you have to act according to the face of the bears. The key point is whether the "golden equatorial line" of $3,300 can be held.
2. Three major contradictions tear apart the gold market
1. The "surface skill" of non-agricultural data in May announced on Friday, with 139,000 new people increasing by 130,000 more than expected, which was much more relaxed and pleasant. But the devil is hidden in the details: wage growth exceeds expectations, which means interest rate cuts may be postponed, and historical data has been quietly revised by 10,000 people. The US dollar index took the opportunity to stand firmly at the 99 mark, thus suppressing gold.
2. Trump's "treasury butterfly effect"
The shock wave of steel tariffs soaring from 25% to 50% is still spreading; industrial metals have risen sharply, and silver has also rebounded, and the gold-silver ratio has been repaired to 82:1; what is more exciting is that the Federal Reserve Chairman may be replaced, and the policy uncertainty is like the sword of Damocles hanging above the market.
3. The central bank's "secret warehouse"
The People's Bank of China has increased its holdings of gold for seven consecutive months, reaching a total of 1.86 tons; Russia is even more powerful, with its gold reserves accounting for more than 25%, setting a record high. However, institutional investors cut net longs by 12% in COMEX. Do you understand this situation of "national team entering the court and institutions retreating"?
3. Practical strategy: the perfect layout of long and short double kill
1. Long defensive formation (30% position):
Radical: US$3300-3305 light position try long, stop loss is set at 3292, target to look at US$3335-3355
Stable: wait for US$3275-3280 to build positions in batches, stop loss is 3267, target US$3320-3315 core logic is to fight for an oversold rebound. After all, RSI has been oversold, and the central bank is still continuing to increase its holdings.
2. Short offensive route (20% position):
The key suppression zone is between $3360 and $3365, short positions are laid out here, stop loss is above 3373
The target is first looking at $3325-3340. If the daily downward triangle is formed, the ultimate goal can be seen at $3280. Remember the golden rule of position management: the single stop loss should not exceed 2% of the principal, and the gold-silver hedging ratio is 1:3. The US trading period (20:30-22:00) fluctuates the most violently, and leverage must be controlled well.
IV. Opportunities in the Eye of the Storm
Short-term 12 weeks: If the support of $3,260 is broken and the programmatic transactions are going smoothly, it is likely to trigger panic concentrated selling, and the target may be directed at $3,220. But don’t worry too much. This decline caused by panic will generally become a good opportunity for the mid-term layout.
Mid-term (Q3 quarter): Geopolitics, the "three fires" are still burning, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has entered its sixth year, and it is in a deadlock, the Middle East channel is facing a crisis, and the US election is full of uncertainty. Any Mars may trigger risk aversion.
In the long run, global de-dollarization is unstoppable, and central bank gold demand has increased by more than 15% each year. In 2025, every in-depth pullback has become a feast for long-term funds.
Conclusion: Hearing the heartbeat of gold in the noise
The gold market is like a precision pacemaker, and $3,300 is the key electrode for maintaining life. The current adjustment is exactly the same as the technical adjustments in June 2019 and March 2023 - after the two pullbacks of 8%-12%, they all came out of a magnificent main upward wave.
Remember two sentences:
Non-agricultural data can only change the rhythm, while global central banks are the trend directors
Technical breakdown is just a tactical retreat, and strategic allocation requires pattern determination
Operation next week, you must keep a close eye on the pressure of 3365 and the support of 3280, and pay attention to the offensive and defensive transformation between them. When noises in the market sound everywhere, only by returning to the source can we maintain profits: the ultimate value of gold always lies in the fact that it is the last payment certificate for human civilization.
