In the week from June 2 to 6, the main July contract of DCE corn closed at 2340, +4/+0.17%, with a weekly increase of -153,000, a weekly increase of 964,000, a trading volume of 1.55 million, and a weekly ratio of -536,000. This week, the main corn futures contract, which has significantly reduced positions, was operating in the form of a reduction in positions during the week. After the reduction and decline in positions at the beginning of the week, the subsequent reduction and increase in positions fluctuated and rose. The decline at the beginning of the week was completely recovered. On Friday, the night trading session once reached the recent small high of 2348. From the weekly line, the bottom is showing a strong trend recently, so pay attention to the subsequent trend.
The domestic corn spot market rose and fell this week. The deep processing in Northeast China has risen slightly, and there are not many deep processing vehicles in North China, but enterprises have a strong willingness to suppress prices, and the prices have weakened slightly. However, the car industry continued to decline on weekends, and the acquisition price of enterprises has changed to a higher price increase; the quotation of Beigang continues to be stable, and the number of vehicles in North China is mainly based on contracts and self-assembly of enterprises, with a slight lacking in price reference significance. The price of Nangang has risen slightly, the futures prices have strengthened and the decline in Hong Kong stocks has significantly supported traders' quotation mentality.
The new season of wheat is harvested from south to north, and the overall harvesting progress is relatively fast year-on-year. Due to the impact of mass listing, wheat prices have continued to fall, and have basically fallen to around the lowest purchase price so far. Tracking data shows that as of June 6, the wheat-corn price gap in the Huanghuai region of North China narrowed to less than 20 yuan/ton, which will have an impact on corn in the feed field. But most forward corn contracts are signed at the end of June, and even in July and August, and enterprises may also purchase forward contracts mainly, and short-term corn is still in the process of contract execution and sales. In addition, given the continued weakening of wheat prices, Henan took the lead in launching the first batch of 236 warehouse points to acquire protective wheat, and it is expected that there is limited room for subsequent decline in wheat prices.
As mentioned above, corn is still in consumption during the execution of the contract, and the sales of explicit inventory will not be greatly affected in the short term. Once the contract is executed, the obvious inventory is close to bottom, which is basically the bottom of the corn surplus grain. The subsequent corn no longer has the possibility of a decline, especially for deep processing, which will help corn rise further sharply. This is also what the author has always emphasized before, "the increase in corn, but it does not necessarily increase in energy." If most of the forward contracts in the market are signed until the end of June and the further month is relatively small, then the spot stock in the next 1-2 weeks should have certain performance.
The current 07 contracts have gradually reduced their positions, while the 09 contracts have not been added equally. The funds are no longer interested in corn, and the gap logic has been slow to fulfill and the enthusiasm has been eroded. The market performance is relatively weaker; but the subsequent position should be dominated by spot stocks,Spot stocks will strongly support futures to run upward, I have been bullish for a year, and I hope I will not fall before dawn.It is recommended that the market continue to buy on a dip.
