The Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to escalate. Although China, the United States and other parties have repeatedly called for a ceasefire, the situation continues to deteriorate. Recently, Putin has rarely transferred back to the Wagner group stationed in Africa, while Zelensky continued to launch attacks on Russia, trying to reverse the decline on the battlefield. This war is no longer a confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, but also affects the global geopolitical landscape.
Wagner was transferred back to Russia, what was Putin's "backhand"?
According to the German "Frankfurter Report", the Russian Wagner Group announced the withdrawal of troops from Mali on June 6, and its statement said that "the mission has been completed and will return to the motherland soon." Wagner has fought side by side with the government forces in Mali since 2021 to fight terrorist organizations, but after the Ukrainian army bombed Russian strategic bombers, Putin quickly ordered a counterattack and transferred back to the Wagner group.
Russian Army (data photo)
The intention of transferring back to Wagner may be two: one is to strengthen Russian local defense and respond to Ukrainian drone attacks; the other is to make up for the Russian army's manpower gap in the battlefield in eastern Ukraine. Wagner was once a key force in the Russian army in the Battle of Bachmut, and now Putin transfers it back may mean that the Russian army will take more radical retaliation.
Ukraine attacked the Russian strategic bomber base, angering Putin
Ukraine claimed to destroy 41 Russian strategic bombers (Phoenix Web) during an operation code-named "Spider Web", but the Russian Ministry of Defense refuted that the losses were "exaggerated". Ukrainian President Zelensky ordered 117 drones to attack Russian air bases, including targets in Rostov Prefecture. Putin then held an emergency meeting and defined Ukraine as a "terrorist" in his public speech, saying that "there is nothing to talk to with terrorists."
The Russian-Ukraine negotiations broke down, and both sides refused to make concessions
In the second round of negotiations held in Turkey, Russia refused the "30-day ceasefire" proposal and put forward harsh conditions: Ukraine must withdraw troops from four states including Donetsk, remain neutral, give up joining NATO, and limit its military strength. At the same time, the West needs to lift sanctions against Russia. Zelensky was tough and said that he would never compromise on sovereignty. In the end, the two sides only reached a limited consensus on the issue of prisoner-of-war exchange, and the ceasefire agreement is still far away.
The United States' position: appear neutral, but in fact anxious
Russia-Ukraine conflict (data photo)
The Trump administration in the United States once advised Russia and Ukraine to cease fire, but it did not work. On the 4th, US Secretary of State Rubio urgently called Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov to call for restraint. At the same time, US officials clarified that the UAV attack "has nothing to do with the United States." Analysts believe that the United States is worried that the escalation of the conflict will affect its own interests, and is unwilling to see Ukraine’s collapse lead to the “waste of military aid”.
The conflict has escalated, and global impact has intensified
According to statistics from the United Nations, more than 4 million Ukrainians have been displaced since the conflict escalates, and Europe is facing huge resettlement pressure. At the same time, Russia, as a major exporter of natural gas and oil, has aggravated uncertainty in the energy market. Military experts warn that if NATO intervenes further, the conflict may turn into a larger proxy war.
When will the war end?
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has evolved from a local war to a global crisis. Putin transferred back to Wagner and Ukrainian troops to continue attacking Russian mainland. Both sides were unwilling to give in, and hope for a ceasefire was slim. How the future situation will develop depends on the next actions of the United States, Russia and Ukraine. The only way out is still negotiations, but the current deadlock shows that peace is still far away.
