The expected positive news for the second round of negotiations between China and the United States directly prompted the Hang Seng Technology Index to rise by more than 2% today, which means that from the bottom in April, the rebound has exceeded 20% so far, and the Hang Seng Technology Index has officially entered a technical bull market.
But we see that the pressure level above 5400 points on the macro technology is also an end point of the previous rebound, which is equivalent to the current pressure level near 3400 points of the A-share Shanghai Stock Exchange Index.
Hang Seng Technology Index enters a technical bull market, why is it unlikely to rise sharply in the short term?
There are two expectations in personal judgment. One is that the rebound profit-taking selling pressure of the Hang Seng Technology Index has basically remained near 5,400 points, and the other is that there are certain changes in the expectations of Sino-US tariff negotiations, which has a great impact on the liquidity of the Hang Seng Technology Index.
In the technical aspect, when the bottom rebounded to around 5400 points in the last round, the Hang Seng Technology Index faced a new wave of adjustments, reaching a minimum of around 5000 points. This wave rebounded from the bottom to now, and it still returned to 5400 points, but the substantial pressure above is still relatively large.
In addition, from a risk perspective, it is necessary to predict that subsequent Chinese stocks may potentially return to Hong Kong stocks, especially some technology stocks. Once they return to the liquidity of the Hang Seng Technology Index, they will solidify in the short term. The short term is negative in the medium and long term is positive, and this short term is negative. This short term is negative.
So from the perspective of these comprehensive factors, I am maintaining a certain short-term cautious optimism about the current bottom rebound of the Hang Seng Technology Index exceeding 20% and entering a technical bull market.
It is believed that under the current technical pressure level and the increasing uncontrollable risk factors, it is a high probability event to maintain the current range oscillation. After the results of the second or even the third round of tariff negotiations between China and the United States are completely higher than expected, the Hang Seng Technology Index may usher in the liquidity supplement and finally form a big bull market. In the long run, I firmly believe in the bull market of the Hang Seng Technology Index.
