The time is coming to close the internet! China lifts the ban on rare earths, and replaces the United States and Europe with one concession

When I opened the Reuters website today, the screen was filled with news about "China's lifting of ban on rare earths", and you can feel the joy of foreign media through the screen. Let's look at this matter according to the timeline.

After the call between China and the United States last week, our Ministry of Commerce issued a message explaining the progress of rare earth approval, saying that some rare earth export applications have been approved and will speed up the approval process of rare earth exports to Europe. Subsequently, Trump couldn't wait to announce the good news that "China agreed to return rare earths to the United States" on Air Force One.

So, why did China relax its rare earth exports on the eve of the second round of Sino-US negotiations? Four words: The time is here.

From the perspective of the Sino-US game, before the two rounds of Sino-US negotiations, China relaxed rare earth controls and issued rare earth licenses to US automakers. This is a pre-emptive layout that takes offense as the defense and promotes talks with slack.

It should be noted that China does not fully lift the ban on rare earths this time, but selectively and targetedly issue licenses to American auto manufacturers, which is a window-like loosening. Opening a larger gap can demonstrate our flexibility in regulation, but we still retain control and initiative in the main line of regulation. The implication is that I did not make concessions to you, because you met the requirements, I approved it to you. Neither lose face nor do you lose your sense of competence.

From the perspective of China-EU game, the EU is preparing to make a ruling on the investigation of brandy taxation, and is also reserved about China's electric vehicle subsidies. For Europe, rare earths are not only raw materials, but also guarantee the stability of the supply chain. China's choice to unlock rare earths at this time is equivalent to giving the European side a chance to "take your own steps."

To sum up, China has achieved remarkable results in controlling rare earths. At present, it has completed the initial pressure on playing cards. Now it is time to take back the initiative and get a substantial response from the opponent. That is, the time for closing the Internet is coming as my title. After all, in this round of China-US-China game, rare earths are pawns, not the final game. When the rare earth card is played, the next thing we need to look at is: how others will help you and how we stop.

So, what concessions should China change to the United States and Europe?

The United States has been very full of measures such as high-tech exports and supply chain restrictions to China before, but in actual operations, it was found that China was also "stuck by itself". After China relaxes its rare earth control, it can be seen that Trump announced to the public on Air Force One that China agreed to the return of rare earths, which is actually impatient to hand over political achievements to the country. In addition, the US has recently relaxed its negotiations in the fields of semiconductor tram photovoltaics and other fields. Comprehensive analysis, this time we took the initiative to release goodwill to the US side with rare earths, and wanted to exchange it for the US side, which is the Trump administration's change from tough to pragmatic adjustment to China.

In Europe, the final ruling on the imposition of tariffs on brandy on July 5 will be made, and the investigation on China's electric vehicles countervailing has also entered the final consultation period. Faced with the two trade disputes between brandy and electric vehicles, China has used the card "accelerating rare earth approval" to leave room for Europe to step down. What is obtained is that the EU is more likely to shift from a confrontational position to a balanced ruling when making a decision.

So, why did China close the network at this time? Because the time has come.

On the one hand, the United States needs to stabilize the supply chain to stabilize the stock market, and Trump also needs it to stabilize political achievements. China's release of rare earth permits is in exchange for the US's attitude of shifting from shouting to implementation;

On the other hand, the EU trade investigation has entered a critical node, and China chose to loosen rare earth exports at this time, retaining a sense of supply stability for European companies, and leaving a buffer zone for adjustment of the ruling for Brussels.

To sum up, China's move is not a compromise, but a layout; it is not a abandonment of the game, but a dominant move to enter the next stage.