The Sino-US negotiations have determined that releasing the "limited goodwill" of rare earths can leverage the two major aspects that China focuses on?
The first talks to the Sino-US trade consultation mechanism have been finalized. China gives the United States a big gift in advance and releases "good intentions". It depends on whether the United States can understand the meaning of it.
It is worth noting that the Trump administration sent three confidant favorites to gather in London, and US Treasury Secretary Becent, Commerce Secretary Lutnik and trade negotiator Greer started the "second round" of negotiations with Chinese representatives.
First, after the call between the Chinese and US leaders and before the new round of trade talks between China and the United States, the export of rare earths to the United States was relaxed, and the "rare earth thawing" was beginning to emerge. This also means that China has sent a big gift, and "limited goodwill" only allows the US to understand thoroughly. For example, temporary rare earth export licenses have been issued to suppliers of the three major U.S. car manufacturers, and some licenses are valid for six months.
At the same time, the Ministry of Commerce of my country also confirmed that it had approved some rare earth export applications, but did not specify which countries or industries involved. One thing is very important. Rare earths are dual-use attributes for military and civilians. This time, they are more inclined to be approved for use in the civilian field, such as meeting the growing demand for rare earths for robots and electric vehicles.
This sends out a signal that the cancellation of the use of civilian products is a bit of a beginning to see. Given the current "large backlog" of license applications, manufacturers may still face delays in the delivery of rare earths and magnets in the short and medium term.
Rarity earths are key materials for electric vehicles and high-tech products. China has eased the pressure on the supply chain under the principle of not loosening, which is enough to give the US a little thin.
The US insists on competing on China's high-tech development, so why can't China seize the supply of key materials in the United States? This is also true. Use the way of others to treat others!
At present, the "approval system + limited release" model is adopted for rare earth exports. The export needs to declare the product model, purpose and final enterprise. Once the purpose is determined to involve military, semiconductor or strategic manufacturing, China may refuse to issue a license.
This time, the release of goodwill to the US side is also a "technical marching" and has not yet represented a significant policy adjustment. It is still too early to say whether this "technical thaw" means that my country will substantially relax the overall control of rare earth exports.
Secondly, the first talks between the Sino-US trade consultation mechanism became particularly important. What is the prospect of successful negotiations in London? At what point will it be regarded as "success" by both sides? Highly attracted attention!
The problem is that when the US side has not yet understood this "temporary" gift, it keeps making small moves; and what preparations should be made for Trump's visit to China in the future, this is all about this talk and is also the highlight.
A major crux of the problem is that the US urgently needs has given it, but it is also "temporary", but the US shows no sign of relaxation in controlling cutting-edge chips needed by China.
The US wants to obtain a permanent rare earth export license, and the next negotiations are the focus. For China, on the one hand, can the US relax its chip control and restrictions on the use of Huawei chips, and even permanentize the tariffs suspended in the Geneva agreement, which is the breakthrough; on the other hand, can the Taiwan issue make some concessions? Looking at every talks, the Taiwan issue always comes first. From Trump's statement on the "one-China principle" in the China-US call, it is very likely that Trump "sells" Taiwan. This is an important call at a key historical node. The signal released is enough to make some people on the island panic first.
Finally, the reason why rare earths are regarded as "new Cold War assets" is their decisive impact on future industries. so that it has become a "bottleneck" product in semiconductors, electric vehicles and defense equipment manufacturing. Against the backdrop of intensifying global geographic competition and increasing reliance on rare earth materials for green energy and military manufacturing, this supply chain struggle with rare earths as the core will still be a profound and lasting strategic game between China and the United States, and rare earths are still strategic bargaining chips.
To sum up, this seems to mean that the London negotiation task is arduous. Whether the first trade negotiations can be achieved depends on what work both sides have prepared and is worth looking forward to.
