This week, the three major A-share indexes ended strongly with a rare "three consecutive positives". The Shanghai Composite Index stood firm at 3,380 points, and the daily turnover exceeded 1.3 trillion yuan, setting a new high in the past three months. The market has risen in volume due to frequent switching between consumption and technology, revealing fierce differences in capital's direction choices.
1. Current market status: structural market dominates, and volume becomes a key signal
1. The index broke through in volume, but differences appeared
The market showed two major characteristics this week: The volume was significantly amplified: the turnover on June 5 reached 1.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 139.5 billion yuan from the previous day, and there were obvious signs of incremental funds entering the market;
Hot spots quickly rotated: consumption and medicine led the rise at the beginning of the week, and turned to computing power and AI hardware on Thursday (such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Shenghong Technology's stock prices hit record highs), and financial stocks made intermittent efforts.
This rotation indicates that the funds have not yet formed a consistent main line and the market is in the pre-change and the market is in the stage of accumulation of power.
2. Dual support for policy and external environment
Domestic policies are intensively implemented: equipment update subsidies, computing power interconnection plans (released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on May 30) and other policies continue to release industrial dividends;
Fast-term easing of overseas risks: US courts temporarily ban Trump's tariff orders, providing a breathing window for export chains (but beware of repeated decisions of the Court of Appeal in June).
2. Change signal: The three major catalysts determine the direction of next week
1. Key event nodes approach
Lujiazui Forum from June 18-19: It is expected that the financial reform policy will be issued, and the securities sector will have abnormal movements in advance (Everbright Securities rose 9% in a single day);
Federal June FOMC meeting: If the interest rate cut signal is released, northbound funds may return to A-shares (foreign capital has been net buying for three consecutive days recently).
2. The technology is facing stress test
The Shanghai Composite Index is currently approaching the key resistance level of 3400 points, which is a technical bottleneck for many highs and falls in 2024. If the volume breaks through, a new round of rise may be started; otherwise, it may fall back to the 3250 support.
3. Changes in capital structure trigger style switching
The new programmatic trading regulations are about to be implemented on July 7, and the decline in activity may suppress small and medium-sized stocks. Recently, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 performed better than the CSI 1000, reflecting that funds have moved to heavy stocks.
3. Opportunity direction: Focus on policy and performance certainty
1. Technological growth (AI+domestic substitution)
Computing power hardware: optical modules (Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyisheng), servers are driven by Nvidia's new highs and domestic computing power policies;
Innovation: The Sino-Science Incident incident was catalyzed by Haiguang Information Reorganization, and the domestic production of operating systems/databases has accelerated (Innovation ETF transaction volume surged by 230%).
2. Consumption recovery (618+low valuation repair)
Required consumption: Dairy (New Dairy), Home Appliances (Midea Group) benefited from the increase in promotions;
New consumption: Pet economy (China Pet Co., Ltd.), domestic beauty products (Perroyal) has received the blessing of Generation Z traffic.
3. Defensive configuration (high dividend + medicine)
Coal (Shenhua China), electricity (Changjiang Electric Power) has stable cash flow and is suitable for volatile markets;
Innovative drugs (Sansheng Guojian) and Chinese medicine (Longshenrongfa) benefit from medical insurance catalog adjustment.
4. Event-driven strategy
interim report expected to increase: late June enters the forecast period, focusing on technology and consumer leaders (such as SMIC and Yili Co., Ltd.) whose net profit growth rate exceeded 30% in the first quarter;
Geo-game: If Sino-US tariff negotiations change, rare earths (Northern rare earths) and military industry (AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation) have hedging value.
4. Risk warning: Two major hidden dangers may trigger a drawdown
1. Domestic economic data is lower than expected: If data such as retail sales and PMI in June are weak, market sentiment may be suppressed;
2. Overseas policies recur: Trump's tariff ban may be overturned by the court of appeals, and the rise in US bond yields will also put pressure on growth stocks' valuations.
Cinda Securities warns that there may be a second slight retracement from June to July.
5. Coping strategy: balanced allocation, dynamic adjustment
Position suggestions: Technology (30%) + consumption (30%) + defense (30%) + cash (10%);
Operation rhythm: Pay attention to event catalysis in the first half of the week (Lujiazui Forum warm-up), and focus on interim report forecasts in the second half of the week;
Risk hedging: Use ETFs (Science and Innovation 50, dividend ETF) to diversify individual stock fluctuations and avoid chasing high-profile stocks.
Historical experience shows that after eight months of narrow fluctuations (such as October 2024-May 2025), it is often accompanied by trend changes.
The current policy bottoming and funding differences are in the tug-of-war, and the market will face direction choices next week. Investors need to keep a close eye on the change in volume and the effectiveness of 3400 points of breakthrough, grasp performance certainty in technology and consumption, while retaining ammunition to defend against black swans.
