Tomorrow's A-share trend will depend on the evolution path of the following key contradictions:
1. Market performance: Structural differentiation behind the five consecutive positives
1. The index approaches key resistance
On June 9, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3399.77 points, briefly broke through 3400 points during the session and then fell back. The daily line achieved five consecutive positives. The transaction volume of the two markets increased to 1.29 trillion, and more than 4,100 individual stocks rose. The main funds accurately control the market, highlighting the psychological pressure and technical resistance of the 3400-point integer mark.
2. Hot topic rotation accelerates
Innovative drugs lead the rise: Due to the low industry valuation, favorable policies and catalysis of international conferences, many stocks in the sector hit the daily limit, and the demand for public holdings to cover their positions is strong;
The securities sector makes efforts: Central Huijin Holdings 8 securities companies have promoted the warming of industry mergers and acquisitions expectations, and Cinda Securities and others lead the rise;
Theme differentiation: football concepts and solid-state batteries are active, but the weights of banks and insurance drag down the index, and the market is insufficient in synergy.
2. Long-short game: the deep logic of 3400 points surround but not attacking
1. The volume bottleneck is waiting to be broken
Historical data shows that effectively standing at 3400 points requires 1.3-1.5 trillion trading support in a single day. Although the current volume has increased by 11.7% to 1.29 trillion yuan, it has not yet reached the threshold. The upper trapped plate (especially last year's 3674 points area) is under significant pressure.
2. Technical concerns emerge
GEM gap risk: Today's gap rise has formed a new gap, coupled with the previous failure to fill the gap, the pressure for technical pullback has increased;
Small and micro stocks are overvalued: The CSI 2000 Index's price-to-earnings ratio is 137 times, at the 98.4% percentile in the past decade, and the trading congestion has reached a historical high.
3. Policy and external uncertainty
Domestic economic data is weak (CPI fell by 0.1% year-on-year in May and PPI fell by 3.3%), the policy is in a vacuum period, and the market is waiting for incremental signals;
Our external risks such as Sino-US tariff negotiations and US technology controls on China are pending, which may disturb the flow of foreign capital.
3. Key points of tomorrow's change of market: Three major signals determine the direction
1. Whether the volume continues to amplify
1.5 trillion is the "life and death line" that is effectively broken through. If the volume shrinks, it may trigger the profit-taking selling pressure, causing the ChiNext to fill the gap.
2. Can the weight sector be relayed?
After securities companies rise today, they need banks, insurance and other weights to take over the stable index. If the differentiation of the financial sector intensifies, 3400 points may be gained and lost again.
3. Catalyzed by external events
On June 10, the US federal court will rule on Trump's tariff policy, coupled with the progress of negotiations between China and the United States and London, which may trigger short-term fluctuations in foreign capital.
IV. Investment strategy: Defensive counterattack, focusing on certainty
1. Short-term avoidance of highs and lows
High dividend safe-haven: Banks, coal, utilities and other sectors benefit from asset shortages and provide defensiveness;
Policy catalytic direction: innovative drugs (first year of performance increase), AI computing power (domestic substitution), low-altitude economy (infrastructure first) have event-driven elasticity.
2. Beware of risk points
Avoid chasing high-level small and micro stocks and theme stocks, and prevent stampede caused by trading congestion;
Pay attention to the performance forecast window at the end of June to avoid "fake growth" companies with high goodwill impairment.
Conclusion: Probability of changing market>accelerating breakthrough
The market is likely to fluctuate tomorrow, and the direction choice depends on the coordination of volume and weight:
Optimistic situation: transaction volume increases to 1.5 trillion + financial weight combined force, the Shanghai Composite Index has stabilized at 3400 points, and started a 3450-point offensive;
Prudent situation: volume falls below 1.2 trillion yuan, the GEM fills the gap, and the Shanghai Composite Index falls back to the 3350 support level.
Investors should control their positions and borrow pullbacks to lay out innovative drugs, AI hardware and high dividend leaders with strong performance certainty, waiting for the right signal of policy and fundamental resonance.
