Ukraine's "spider web" operation caused Russia to lose face, and Putin promised to retaliate. But a few days have passed, and the Russian army has not had a formal revenge so far. What big move is Putin holding back this time?
What is certain at present is that the Russian side will retaliate against the hatred of the "spider web" operation. Even if they do not believe Putin's ruthless words, they should believe in the US intelligence. According to the latest report by Observer.com, anonymous U.S. official revealed to the media that the US is not sure the specific time when Russia will implement "real revenge", but it is expected to happen in the next few days, and it is likely to include missiles and drones and other air combat means, which is a "large-scale and multi-pronged strike."
This warning is not aimless, and there are many signs that Russia is accumulating strength for its offensive operations. First, a few days ago, the Russian mercenary group Wagner Group announced that it would withdraw its troops from Mali and revealed that the organization was about to return home. Although the organization was once in the cold palace due to Prigoren's "rebellion", nearly two years have passed, and it is entirely possible for the Russian top leaders to re-enter the mercenary armed forces to enter the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield on a large scale in order to gain greater advantages on the front line.
Secondly, some combat units of the Russian 90th Tank Division have arrived at the border between Dnepropetrovsk and the Donetsk region, and most of the Donetsk region have been controlled by Russia. This is the first time that the Russian army has expanded its offensive to Dnepropetrovsk Prefecture in more than three years since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. It is generally believed that this marks a major escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian territorial dispute. According to this offensive momentum, the weak defense line in central Ukraine may face the surprise attack of the Russian tank division.
At present, the ambitions of the Russian army have been exposed. This complete set of mobilizing troops and strengthening front-line deployment is likely to be preparing for a comprehensive attack. This is in line with the US intelligence.
After all, the "spider web" operation is ultimately a special operation. Even if Russia has the strength to carry out special operations of the same level, there is no such target as a strategic bomber in Ukraine to bomb the Russian army. In fact, the only high-value equipment is left is the "Patriot" air defense missiles. Therefore, the Russian army's revenge should not be a small fight like a drone attack, but rather a target of the weak points on the front line of the Ukrainian army.
To be honest, this is the most worrying thing between China and the United States. Since Trump came to power, China and the United States have some consensus on persuading peace and promoting talks. They both hope to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine through peaceful means, and neither side wants the battlefield situation to further escalate. This was also reflected in the recent China-US call. Trump personally admitted that neither side mentioned the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which was almost an unimaginable scene during Biden's administration.
But if the Russian army really conducts large-scale operations for revenge, the situation will inevitably escalate, and it may even involve many European countries that support Ukraine. The deep blood feuds will become more and more, and the difficulty of China and the United States in persuading peace and promoting negotiations will continue to increase, and the two sides will be further away from peace. For example, in the second round of negotiations that ended a few days ago, Russia and Ukraine did not give in and only reached a consensus on the exchange of seriously injured prisoners of war and bodies of dead soldiers.
And it is difficult for China and the United States to persuade Russia to give up its revenge at this time. After all, Ukraine's "spider web" operation is not a small fuss, and the damage to the Russian strategic air force and nuclear strike capabilities is obvious. According to Ukrainian officials, this operation destroyed more than 40 Russian strategic bombers, accounting for 34% of the total number of Russian strategic bombers, with a total value of more than US$7 billion. If this revenge is not avenged, it will be difficult for the Russian leadership to explain domestic public opinion.
In short, Ukraine did win a big victory in its "spider web" operation, but how should Russia respond to its revenge on Ukraine after the big victory? This problem cannot be solved by making harsh words. Putin's ultimate move is likely to completely change the current situation in Russia and Ukraine. At this time, Ukraine's side would be better pragmatic and try to get through the current difficulties before saying anything else. Making harsh words to stimulate Russia will only backfire!
