Spot gold fell below $3,300, is it coming for a major change in international gold prices?
In terms of international gold prices, whether in spot gold or futures, almost all began to struggle at the integer mark of $3,300, because judging from the trend in the past week, gold pulled out a positive line last Monday, once challenging $3,400, and continued to fall in the next four days. By the time this morning, the positive line on Monday was almost swallowed by the decline, and the gold price has now reached the sensitive 20-day line.
Especially, the 20-day line is currently flat, which shows that there will be major changes in the trend of international gold prices. Why do you say so?
First, for gold, the essence of fluctuations is risk aversion. In fact, everyone should find that since April 22, gold has begun to fluctuate at high boxes, basically maintaining between US$3,200 and US$3,500, and has not hit a new high. On the one hand, there is a reason for the previous increase. On the other hand, risk aversion has cooled down, especially since the Sino-US negotiations are about to begin recently, the risk factors brought by trade have been reduced again, so it is difficult for gold prices to experience a rise in risk aversion and upward drive in the short term;
Secondly, the flattening state of the 20-day line on the gold chart has lasted for a while, indicating that the bullish trend line is approaching the turning point. In addition, the 60-day line has reached US$3,243. If a new round of upward trend is not available near the 60-day line in the short term, then the medium-term trend of gold will face disadvantages. Whether it will be adjusted or where it will be adjusted is time to pay attention;
From these two points, it feels that the major changes in the international gold price trend are coming soon.
Of course, in the current era when the whole people are bullish on gold, it seems inappropriate to put forward this view, because our central bank still increased its holdings of gold in May this year. So when you say that gold is about to fall at this time, it doesn't make sense to say that gold will fall first. I don't shy away from this point of view, and I also agree that under the premise of the continuous increase in gold by global central banks, the probability of a large decline in gold prices is very small. However, from the current technical perspective, international gold prices are indeed facing the turning point of the trend. In the case of divergence between the fundamentals and the technical aspects, should we believe in fundamentals or technology? I think more often the technology will reflect fundamentals in advance. Of course, I will be bullish on gold in the medium term, and I still have to be cautious about the current technical risks!
Disclaimer: The content in the article is for reference only and does not constitute any operational suggestions or prompts. Please be cautious if there are risks in the stock market and investment!
