1. 3400 points: Strategic fortress and historical change laws
1. Psychological barriers and historical pressure
Since the first breakthrough of 3400 points in 2007, this point has become the core anchor point of long-term fluctuations in A-shares. Over the past 18 years, the market has always fluctuated wide from 3,000 to 3,500 points, and a large number of trapped chips have accumulated above (the single-day transaction volume in October 2024 reached 3.45 trillion yuan but failed to stabilize at 3,600 points). Historically, the path differentiation after 3400 points is significant:
Bul market springboard: For example, the 6-month breakthrough in 2007 soared to 6124 points;
Bear market trap: For example, the plunge of more than 50% after hitting in 2008 and 2015;
Structural market end: For example, the policy rebounded at the bottom of 2022 and fell due to external shocks.
2. Current Challenge: Insufficient volume and quantitative shackles
The current breakthrough requires the average daily turnover to stabilize at more than 1.3-1.5 trillion yuan, but quantitative funds rely on range volatility arbitrage, becoming a hidden force to suppress breakthroughs - its high-frequency strategy will fail after the index leaves the oscillation range. In addition, before the implementation of the new programmatic trading regulations on July 7, active funds may shrink in June, further suppressing volume.
2. Changes in next week: three key game points
1. Policies and liquidity bottoming out
In May, the central bank's "package of monetary policies" was implemented (reducing reserve requirement ratio and interest rate + increasing MLF volume), and the capital market remained loose, providing support for the market. However, the policy effect needs to resonate with incremental policies (such as domestic demand stimulus and tariff hedging) to activate risk preferences.
2. External risk disturbances
Tariff recurrence: US courts suspend the tariff ban on Trump, and subsequent negotiation fluctuations may impact the export chain;
Summit of US bond maturity: US bonds in centralized maturity in June may push up the US dollar index, suppressing the valuation of A-shares.
3. Style switching signal
The regulatory environment and capital structure are tilted towards the weight of the market: the concentration of small and micro trading reaches a historical high, while the new quantitative regulations suppress the activity of small and small markets; the June calendar effect shows that the market growth is dominant. If the main sector (such as technology) cannot relay, the index may fall back to 3227 points (60-day moving average) to accumulate strength.
3. Those who have full positions: defensive counterattack strategy
1. Optimization of position structure
High dividend safe haven: Banks, electricity, ports and other "special" safe assets, stable cash flow and benefit from the market value management of state-owned enterprises;
Technology eliminates false and retains true: Focus on fully adjusting AI applications, humanoid robots, and automotive electronics, and beware of inflated valuations.
2. Pyramid Replenishment Method
If the holdings fall back, you can replenish your positions in segments: build 30% for the first time, add 20% for every 5% drop, and control the total position within 70%, avoid passive deep traps. Example: If a company repurchase is found during a decline in consumer stocks, you can increase your position and rebound at the right time.
4. Short positions: timing and attack direction
1. Change-change confirmation signal
Effective breakthroughs must be met: the single-day trading volume exceeds 1.3 trillion + the weighted sectors (such as big finance) lead the rise in volume. If Wuquan attacks to 3509 points (the high in November), it will be considered as a trap for luring.
2. Bottom area sniping
Consumption recovery: traditional Chinese medicine, entertainment supplies (policy-driven) + beauty care (new consumption rise);
Resource cycle: gold, rare earths (geographical risk aversion) + copper, aluminum (capacity clearance + demand recovery).
5. Industry allocation: The main line of "three-legged" in June
Brotherlines
Diplomatic assets (banks, electricity): dividend yield > 4%, hedging fluctuations;
Consumption recovery (commerce and retail, automobiles): policy "old trade for new";
Technical growth (national defense and military industry, TMT): Google's AI ecological upgrade catalyzing industrial chain (such as AR glasses partner Luxshare Precision).
Core portfolio suggestions: automobiles (stable production and sales) + nonferrous metals (prime metals rising prices) + medicine (chemical pharmaceutical business improved).
6. Ultimate reminder: The art of position management
Fix positions according to the point: every 100 points increase above 3400 points, a 10% reduction in position, and a 3300 point retracement can be increased to 70%;
Avoid "emotional full position": data shows that the average loss of those who have full positions is 2.3 times that of those who have short positions;
Tool-assisted decision-making: use public opinion monitoring (such as negative warning) to achieve a 0.1-second stop loss.
Zhuge Miaojian: When the market direction is unclear, "empty city plan" (empty position) is better than blind attack. For example, "Brother Xiaocang" Wang Yuhou relies on discipline to avoid danger, and the annual product income is 52.79%.
Conclusion
3400 points are both historical shackles and breakthrough springboards. The key to the change in the market next week is the return of volume and policy resonance. Investors need to observe the dangers of "empty city" like Sima Yi - those who have full positions control the position and adjust the structure, and those who have short positions wait for the opportunity to catch the wrong ones, so that they can defend the city while shaking momentum and wait for the horn of the "slow structure bull".
