A sudden weekend! The China Securities Regulatory Commission took action quickly, the central bank swept 28 billion, and the A-share trend is ahead of tomorrow

1. Interpretation of the two core policies: expansion of the national team and strategic increase in gold holdings

1. The CSRC approved 8 financial institutions of Huijin Holdings

Incident: The CSRC urgently approved Central Huijin to become the actual controller of eight financial companies including Dongxing Securities, Cinda Securities, and Great Wall Guorui Securities, involving three major areas: securities, funds, and futures.

Significance:

Eyes of securities integration strengthened: The market speculates that this move may pave the way for building "aircraft carrier-level securities companies" and promote industry mergers and acquisitions and restructuring. The logic similar to the doubled securities sector in the "924 market" in 2024 may reappear.

National team protection signal: Huijin System expands its capacity to enhance the "leveling fund" function, directly enhances the market's confidence in the financial sector, and provides impetus for the index to break through 3,400 points.

2. The central bank increased its holdings of gold by 24.5 billion yuan for seven consecutive months

Data: In May, the central bank's gold reserves increased by 60,000 ounces month-on-month, and increased their holdings by 1.03 million ounces (about 24.5 billion yuan) in total in seven months, and the proportion of gold reserves rose to 7% (still below the global average of 15%).

Strategic intention:

Optimize the foreign exchange reserve structure: cope with US dollar fluctuations and geopolitical risks, and promote the internationalization of the RMB.

Goldman price rise expectations: Goldman Sachs predicts that the gold price may reach US$4,000 per ounce in 2026, and the central bank's increase in holdings further strengthens the allocation value of gold stocks.

2. Direct impact of policies on sectors: securities companies and gold lead the rise

1. Securities sector: merger expectations ignite the market

Beneficiary targets: securities companies included in Huijin (such as Cinda Securities and Dongxing Securities) may become short-term hot spots, driving the overall sentiment of the sector.

Historical reference: In the 2024 "924 Market", securities stocks rose by more than 30% in a single week due to loose policy policies (such as the "repurchase loan" interest rate as low as 2.25%), and the policy similarity this time is relatively high.

2. Gold and resource stocks: dual driving of hedging and inflation

Leaders: Shengda Resources (leader of silver reserves), Hunan Gold, etc. have high performance elasticity, and spot silver has risen 24% to US$36/ounce this year (new 13-year high).

Diffusion effect: If gold stocks strengthen, it may drive industrial metal sectors such as copper and aluminum to make up for the rise.

Policy Benefits Sections and Operation Logic

| Technology Growth | Financial Technology (such as Cross-border Payment) + AI Computing Power | Sifang Jingchuang and Inspur | Batch Layout of Opportunities in the Second Half of the Year |

3. Key variables of tomorrow's market: Volume determines success or failure of breakthrough

1. Technical stress test

- The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3385 points, only one step away from 3400 points, but the trading volume on Friday shrank to 1.17 trillion. If the volume cannot be increased to more than 1.3 trillion tomorrow, it may trigger a surge and fall.

Support level: 3350 points (20-day moving average); pressure level: 3400 points (three shocks this year failed).

2. External disturbance factors

Impact of US stocks: US non-farm data in May exceeded expectations (272,000 new people), and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates before September decreased, which may lead to short-term outflow of northbound funds.

China-US Economic and Trade Talks: If tariff negotiations send out a signal of slowing down, it may boost market risk appetite.

4. Tomorrow's trend forecast and operation strategy

1. High probability scenario: structural general rise (probability 70%)

Index: narrow range fluctuations (3380-3405 points), securities companies and gold sectors lead the rise to hedge against the differentiation of technology stocks.

Individual stocks: Oversold small and medium-cap stocks (such as AI application side and consumer electronics) have significant opportunities to make up for the rise.

2. Low-probability scenario: Large volume breaks through 3400 points (probability 30%)

Trial conditions: securities sector collectively explodes (needs to increase by more than 3% in a single day) + transaction volume exceeds 1.3 trillion.

Follow up direction: Securities ETF (512000), Financial Technology (Hengbao Co., Ltd.).

3. Risk hedging suggestions

Occurrency portfolio: securities firm (40%) + gold (30%) + computing power (30%);

Defensive configuration: high dividend bank (China Merchants Bank) + electricity (Changjiang Power).

Conclusion: The window of "Staying Progress in Stability" under the policy dividend

Tomorrow, A-shares will usher in the resonance test of policy and technology: If securities companies drive the large volume to exceed 3,400 points, then increase their positions on the right; if the volume fluctuation is maintained, focus on the pullback layout of gold and semiconductor equipment. In the medium and long term, Huijin's expansion and central bank gold increase in holdings have sent a strong signal of "stabilizing the market". Coupled with the dividends of financial technology, computing power infrastructure and other industries, the slow bull market in the third quarter is still expected. Investors need to keep a close eye on changes in early trading volume and northbound capital flows, seize structural opportunities and strictly observe position discipline.