In the news, China and the United States will hold the first meeting of the economic and trade consultation mechanism next week. According to the progress of the negotiations, the bond market may fluctuate certainly.
In terms of macro data, May CPI data and import and export data will be released on Monday, with the focus on whether it exceeds expectations. May financial data will be released from the 10th to the 15th. Generally speaking, the later the data is released, the more beneficial it is to the bond market.
Secondly, the maturity scale of interbank certificates of deposit this week will reach 1.2 trillion yuan, the largest in the historical single-week maturity. Among them, the more stressed one was Friday, with an expiration of 405.4 billion yuan. Net government debt contributions decreased year-on-year, with an effective impact. In particular, pay attention to Tuesday and Friday, and focus on the strength of the central government's care, and short-term disturbances are expected to be the main one.
As the bond market fluctuated and rose this week, the cost-effectiveness of long-term interest-rate bonds has shrunk slightly, from 42.34% last week to 41.86%. There is still some room to go to the bottom of the first quarter. In addition, it is worth noting that judging from the 1-10-year treasury bond interest rate spread, the allocation of short-term bonds is still higher than that of long-term bonds. Secondly, judging from the 10-30-year treasury bond interest rate spread, the long-term end is actually higher than the super long end.
The credit spread continues to widen a little, from 28.75% to 30.76% last week, and there is still a lot of room for interest rate spread compression from the historical low in 2024.
In general, there are still many variables in the bond market this week, and there are relatively more overall negative expectations.
What do you think about the bond market tomorrow? Sunshine personal prediction The probability of a small decline in long-term interest rate bonds tomorrow (There are many uncertain factors in a single day, which is only used as a pre-market observation for the bond market, and the focus is on the late-market bond fund strategy, which is more valuable than prediction). This subsequent part will be shared in the closing article at around 17:30 every day.
Sunshine personally maintains the short-term view of the bond market: Long-end interest rate bonds have a high probability of sideways fluctuation (the phased rises and falls are similar, and the volatility range is expected to be 1.61%-1.71%), Medium- and short-term credit bonds are expected to continue to fluctuate warmly (more rises in stages, less falls, not every day).
Personal Bond Fund Strategy: There is no change, and the focus is on two directions. The holding experience of short-term bonds/medium-short-term bond funds mainly based on credit bonds is more stable, and mixed bonds and fixed income + funds may have better opportunities this year. Long-end and ultra-long-end interest-rate bonds are still dominated by bands. The overall focus is on appropriate balance, with configuration as the main focus and band as the auxiliary focus.
We will see you~
