1. Market review: The logic chain behind accurate prediction
This week, the gold market perfectly interprets the "roller coaster" market. After the ADP data was released on Wednesday, the gold price fluctuated in the range of 3360-3385. On Thursday, the Asian and European sessions slowly rose to $3403. The US unemployment benefits data quickly fell to $3340, which was only 2 US dollars away from the "3405 peaked and fell" predicted by Li Yixuan's team. In this wave of operations, 3402 short positions took profit at 3350, and the profit margin of $52 verified two core views: 3405, the upper rail of the daily Bollinger band is under strong suppression (actual high 3403) The pullback risk in the bull trend (actual decline of $63)
2. Technical triple verification Daily level: Failed to break through the key pressure level of 3405 for three consecutive days MACD red kinetic energy column continues to shrink, and the Bollinger band closes indicates a change window (current range 3330-3405) 4-hour cycle: 3385-3335 constitutes the Asian and European market oscillating box, and the 60-day moving average 3348 forms short-term support. If the US breaks through 3385 before the US market, it will test the 3400 mark. Volume-price relationship: On Thursday, there was a significant decline in volume at the high of 3403, which indicates that there is institutional selling pressure above 3400, which is verified by the strategy of "not chasing highs".
3. Non-agricultural night combat manual Stage 1: Asian and European trading strategy (8:00-20:00) Defensive position: 3360-3350 range light position try long (stop loss 3335 below) Pressure position: 3383-3385 short short (stop loss 3390 above) Best operation: wait and wait for US trading signals Stage 2: Non-agricultural data response (after 20:30) Scenario 1: Data negative gold Focus on the gains and losses of the 3330 neckline, and look at 3300 below the break. 3358 can lay out short positions (stop loss 3370) Scenario 2: Data positive gold After breaking through 3385, pay attention to the high pressure before 3405. 3380 chase long needs to set 3355 stop loss
4. Core risk warning Beware of the "buy expectations and sell facts": the current market has been priced at the Federal Reserve's September interest rate cut expectations. London gold fixed price disturbances: There are often abnormal fluctuations between 16:00 and 17:00 recently. The key position of the US dollar index: 104.3 If the support breaks, it will boost gold. 5. Correct common misunderstandings from retail investors × Wrong operation: Chase the rise above 3390 (institutional long positions closed) √ Correct idea: Build positions in batches below 3360 (cost advantage strategy)
Conclusion Gold is currently in a "strong oscillation" rather than a unilateral market. Today, focus on the 3330-3405 range. Investors are advised to adopt the "light position before data, follow up after data" strategy, and remember the iron rule of gold trading that Li Yixuan repeatedly emphasized: it is better to miss a profit of 3400 than to get stuck on the top of 3405. The volatility of non-farm nights is usually three times the normal trading day. Please be sure to control the position within 10%.
