The A-share market closed positive for four consecutive days after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, and the Shanghai Composite Index stood firm at 3380 points, approaching the key resistance level of 3400 points. During this window period of change of trading, the Shanghai Stock Exchange held a "Symposium on High Dividend Reward and Value Improvement of Listed Companies" on June 5, sending a clear signal of policy longing. Combining the trends of the main capital and changes in market structure, A-shares may usher in a new round of style switching opportunities.
1. Policy signal: High dividend leads value revaluation
This symposium brought together leading insurance companies (China Life, Ping An, Tai Insurance) and five major public funds (E Fund, Huaxia, etc.), and released two major directional guidelines: 1. Strengthen dividend and market value management
It clearly requires listed companies to increase dividend efforts and increase dividend frequency, and encourage the use of repurchase, mergers and restructuring and other tools to enhance investment value. The dividend ratio of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Main Board in 2024 has reached 39%, with a dividend yield of 3.6%. The supply of dividend assets will be further expanded in the future. The policy goal is to increase the valuation of high-dividend companies and attract long-term capital to enter.
2. Build a dividend asset ecosystem
Shanghai Stock Exchange plans to enrich the dividend index product system (such as the expansion of dividend ETFs) and promote the connection between "patient capital" such as insurance and social security and other "sexual capital" with high-quality equity assets. Against the backdrop of downward risk-free interest rates, high-dividend sectors such as banks, energy, and electricity have become the ballast for institutional allocation.
2. Capital trends: The main force's position adjustment hidden secrets
The market shrinks and rises this week (the turnover on Friday is 1.15 trillion, down 138.3 billion month-on-month), but the capital structure shows positive changes:
Tests: Fang Xinxia and other first-tier capitals have been silent for 3 months and have turned to net inflows, focusing on increasing their holdings in chemical pharmaceuticals and digital currencies, and sending a signal of a rebound in risk appetite.
Institutions chased highs and increased their positions: Active funds accelerated inflows starting from Thursday, with net purchases of 16 individual stocks (over 10 million per share) in a single day, and innovative drugs and Internet finance were increased by the main players. The reluctance to sell highlights confidence in the future.
Retail investors reverse entry: Against the background of net outflow of main funds of 26.5 billion, small order funds flowed in 24.8 billion against the trend, and retail investors' sentiment resonates with institutions.
However, passive funds (such as the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300ETF) remained silent this week, implying that a breakthrough of 3400 points requires incremental funds to cooperate.
3. Change catalyst: three forces struggle
The market faces three direction choices next week:
1. Policy node
The Shanghai Stock Exchange will launch the first intelligent marine equipment and commercial technology exhibition area on June 11, and AI+ hardware (brain-computer interface, bionic robot) may welcome event catalysis; the Lujiazui Forum may release the new policy on financial reform on June 18.
2. Technical pressure
Shanghai Stock Exchange 3400 points are the key resistance for three highs and downs this year. If the volume breaks through, it will open upward space, otherwise it may fall back to the 3250 support.
3. Fund migration window
The new programmatic trading regulations are about to be implemented on July 7, and the liquidity of small and medium-sized stocks is under pressure, and the trend of funds transferring to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 weights has appeared (the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 performed better than the CSI 1000 this week).
4. Configuration direction: Focus on certain dividends and technological breakthroughs
1. With the support of high dividends and both offense and defense
With the support of policies, low-valuation dividend assets such as banks, electricity (Changjiang Power), coal (Shenhua China), etc. have rigid allocation, and targets with a dividend yield of >3.6% may be revaluated.
2. The dual main lines of technological growth
AI hardware: optical modules (Zhongji Xuchuang), servers are driven by Nvidia's new highs and domestic computing power policies;
Domestic substitution: semiconductors (SMIC), information creation (Haiguang Information) benefit from the Shanghai Stock Exchange's technology release and science and technology innovation policies.
3. Event-driven strategy
interim report is expected to increase: the forecast period in late June is approaching, and consumption (Yili) and technology leaders with a net profit growth rate of >30% in the first quarter are flexible;
Policy themes: new themes or pulse performance such as smart marine equipment (SSEX), commercial aerospace (institutional increase in holdings).
5. Risk warning: Two major hidden dangers need to be vigilant
1. Domestic demand suppresses sentiment: If the June social retail and PMI data are not as good as expected, the logic of consumer stock repair may be impacted.
2. Overseas policies: Trump's tariff appeal ruling (mid-June) and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting are hawkish, which may trigger foreign capital to return to US stocks.
Conclusion: Change is imminent, and the long signal of the policy is clear, and the main funds have quietly turned, but the 3400-point battle requires large-scale transactions (it is recommended to pay attention to the 1.3 trillion threshold for a single day). The short-term strategy is mainly based on "high dividend base (40%) + technological growth assault (30%)", and retains 30% of cash to deal with fluctuations. The first half of next week will focus on the themes of the preheating of the Lujiazui Forum and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Conference, and track the interim report forecast and foreign capital flow in the second half of next week. The market never lacks opportunities, only patience - when policies, funds and technical aspects resonate, the change of market is the reward moment.
