On June 6, US President Trump claimed that he had accepted the invitation from China to visit China and planned to start his visit to China at the right time.
What is striking is that on the day of the China-US call, the US Treasury Department released its semi-annual exchange rate report, not listing China as a "transferring rate manipulator" - this is regarded by the outside world as an "olive branch" offered by the United States, creating a good atmosphere for Trump's visit to China in advance.
Trump
On the evening of June 5, the 90-minute call between China and the United States became a turning point in the relationship between the two countries. China emphasized that "mutual respect, equality and reciprocity" is the basis of dialogue, demanded that the US withdraw its negative measures against China, and specifically pointed out that the Taiwan issue is an insurmountable "red line". Trump has made two rare promises: First, we welcome Chinese students to return to the United States, and second, we reiterate our adherence to the "one China" policy. He also revealed that the representatives of China and the United States will restart trade negotiations, and the United States will send a "luxury lineup" composed of Finance Minister Becent, Commerce Minister Lutnik and Trade Representative Greer.
From May 11 to 12, after China and the United States reached a tariff consensus in Geneva, the Trump administration did not actively fulfill its promises. On the one hand, it increased the control of chip exports to China and threatened to cancel visas for Chinese students. On the other hand, it frequently exposed the news that it "looks forward to China-US calls." This strategy of interweaving "suppression" and "summonization" is regarded by the outside world as an attempt to create bargaining chips in exchange for initiative in negotiations. Until the rare earth supply chain crisis became the last straw that broke the camel's back - China occupies an absolute dominant position in global rare earth supply, while the US defense industry and new energy industry are highly dependent on importing rare earths from China, forcing the US side to adjust its posture.
China and the United States
On June 6, the US Treasury Department released an exchange rate report, which rarely did not include China on the list of "exchange rate manipulators", only saying that China's exchange rate policy "lack of transparency." This decision is in stark contrast to Trump's tough stance when he first came to power in 2019. At that time, the US unilaterally labeled China as a so-called "transfer rate manipulator", which led to the escalation of bilateral trade frictions. The US choice to change this time is widely interpreted as releasing goodwill to China and creating an atmosphere for subsequent negotiations.
However, the US side has not completely put away the pressure stick. The report included nine economies including China, Japan and South Korea on the "watch list" and hinted that "it may be re-evaluated in the future." This method of using both soft and hard not only echoes Trump's statement of "welcoming China's rapid economic development" during the call, but also tries to retain operational space in future pressure on China.
In this regard, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has already made a clear statement: the RMB exchange rate is determined by the market, and China will not engage in competitive depreciation, and will not accept groundless accusations.
Trump's confirmation of visit to China this time is by no means a simple diplomatic and etiquette interaction, but the result of the interweaving of multiple interests. First of all, American companies have frequently warned about the risk of supply cuts in rare earths recently. If China continues to tighten export controls, everything from F-35 fighter jets to Tesla's electric vehicle production lines may be affected. At the same time, China's continued reduction in holdings of US debt has also made the US side worried about the stability of the financial market.
Secondly, 2026 is the year of the US midterm elections, and Trump urgently needs diplomatic results to boost his support ratings. Previous imposition of tariffs on China has led to high inflation, which has aroused dissatisfaction among American voters. If we can reach a trade agreement and reduce tariffs through visiting China, we can not only alleviate the pressure on the US economy, but also shape the image of a "strong leader".
Finally, the current dollar hegemony is facing unprecedented challenges. China has accelerated the promotion of RMB settlement with its partners such as Russia and the Middle East, while the United States has not listed China as a exchange rate manipulator, in part to avoid stimulating and accelerating the process of RMB internationalization. The Trump administration is clearly aware that in emerging fields such as climate cooperation and artificial intelligence, the United States can no longer lead the formulation of rules alone, and must maintain a balance of "competition and cooperation" with China.
From the deadlock in Sino-US trade talks to the breaking of the China-US call, from rare earth games to exchange rate reports, Sino-US relations are on a delicate balance beam. Trump's plan to visit China may not only be an opportunity for both sides to rebuild mutual trust, but also may become the starting point of a new round of game. The only thing that is certain is that China has already mastered the strategic initiative - whether it is rare earth control or U.S. bond reduction, it has made the United States realize that any "extreme pressure" will eventually backfire itself.
