1Bond market trend
As of 11:30 yesterday, the bond market continued to feel warm. The medium- and short-term interest-rate bonds rose significantly, with the 10-year treasury bond yield falling below 1.67%. Treasury bond futures rose collectively in the afternoon, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.25% and the 10-year main contract rising by 0.14%.
Credit bonds and certificates of deposit all turned red, while Eryong bonds performed strongly.
2Money situation
The central bank continued to net withdrawal yesterday, with an amount exceeding 150 billion; the cumulative net withdrawal this week exceeded 670 billion.
The capital market remained loose, with overnight and 7-day capital prices reaching 1.41% and 1.52% respectively.
3Bond market comments and outlook
The day before yesterday, the central bank announced the launch of a 1 trillion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months. The amount of this operation exceeds the scope of conventional operation and sends out a strong policy signal. Buyout reverse repurchase is different from ordinary reverse repurchase. You can understand it as the central bank buys out the ownership of the counterparty's bonds during operation. When it expires, the counterparty must buy back the same amount of the same bond from the market and return it to the central bank.
The central bank's operation is mainly to accurately respond to the various liquidity challenges facing the current market: on the one hand, it has recently faced a peak in the tax period, and enterprises will withdraw large amounts of funds from the market. In addition, the centralized issuance of government bonds will also occupy a large amount of funds, which puts pressure on market liquidity; on the other hand, banks will also face MPA assessment pressure at the end of the quarter, and these factors may cause large fluctuations in market interest rates.
From the impact point of view, this operation sends a clear signal to the market that the capital cost center will remain stable. The central bank provides relatively long-term liquidity, which can effectively avoid large fluctuations in interest rates caused by short-term funding shortages. At the same time, it also strengthened the market's confidence in the central bank's maintaining liquidity stability, and stabilized market expectations.
In the short term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate and be warmer, and the 10-year Treasury bond yield may fluctuate near the current level, and there is a certain downward space, but the amplitude may be relatively limited. It is recommended that everyone maintain balanced allocation of stocks and bonds, and gradually pay attention to the allocation opportunities of short-term interest rate bonds.
Investing is risky, so be cautious when entering the market.
