Last week, the bond market continued to adjust, with the yield of active bonds in 10-year NTD bonds rising by about 1.5BP throughout the week, and the yield of active bonds in 30-year NTD bonds rising by about 1BP throughout the week. The overall capital market is abundant. After the tax period, the capital price gradually fell to a relatively stable level in the previous period. The central bank continued to issue net injections at the end of the month, and the price of cross-month funds basically remained in the range of 1.7%-1.8%. The quotations of interbank certificates of deposit and deposits in banks are relatively stable, which to a certain extent still reflects the pressure brought by deposit moving on the bank's liability side. The price of 1-year large banks' certificates of deposit basically remained at around 1.7%, and the quotations fell slightly on Friday. The interest-rate bond transactions throughout the week are relatively light, with low transactions, and sentiment is still mainly fluctuating. In contrast, the sentiment of credit bond transactions is relatively hot, especially in the first half of the week, credit bond overall performance is better than interest-rate bonds, and financial management and fund buying scale is relatively large.
The official manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5, the same as expected, the previous value was 49, a slight recovery from the previous month, but it was still below the boom-bust line. Judging from the sub-item structure, both production and new order indexes rose. After the tariff eased, foreign demand boosted the manufacturing industry a little. The export order index rose by 2.8 percentage points, but the price index fell slightly. At this stage, tariff policies are full of uncertainty. The bond market fluctuations in the two trading days last Thursday and Friday were mainly affected by the repeated news of the US tariff policy ruling. In the future, it will still be a factor that affects risk preferences and brings short-term market impacts. However, the main fundamentals still support the bond market. The elasticity of export grabbing since May is average, domestic demand indicators have not improved significantly, inflation remains at a low level, and long-term interest rate adjustment risks are expected to be still controllable. As the end of the six months entered the market, the market paid more attention to the situation of the capital market. In early June, the overall capital market was expected to be loose, and the scale of net government bond contributions decreased, but the amount of reverse repurchase maturity was relatively high, and the central bank was expected to take appropriate care of it. The maturity of certificates of deposit in June exceeded 4 trillion yuan, and the maturity pressure is relatively high. The distribution of maturity is low first and then high. Pay attention to the pressure of issuance of certificates of deposit in the middle and late quarters and participate in the allocation opportunities at the right time.
Credit bonds performed significantly better than interest-rate bonds last week, especially the municipal bond category. The credit spread was significantly compressed under the leadership of institutional behavior, and low-grade municipal bonds performed the best in 3-5 years. After rapid market development in recent weeks, the yield of municipal bonds has declined by more than 30BP, and the credit spread has been compressed more, but there is still a certain amount of room for it. Institutions will still have the momentum to allocate in the future. It is recommended to select individual bonds to maintain a certain position and leverage.
Related products: Jinxin Minxing Bond
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Jinxin Minxing Bond Product Risk Level is R2, suitable for professional investors and ordinary investors with risk tolerance levels C2, C3, C4, and C5 (this is the rating of the manager, and the specific sales are subject to the ratings and matching opinions of each agency)
