A shares are about to break through the low of 3400 points, which gives people the feeling that the activity of individual stocks has greatly improved. Some people have already said that individual stocks have begun to rise generally. However, in this case, the liquor index, which was preferred by the market in the past, has recently gone the opposite way. It has not followed the continuous upward rhythm of individual stocks in the market, but is constantly falling. It feels that the CSI liquor index has approached the starting point of the 924 market.
Why is the liquor index going down against the trend?
I think the main reason is that the activity of the consumer market has decreased, because judging from the CPI released in May in May, there has been no continuous and obvious changes, and it still fluctuates between 0.1%. Judging from the CPI trend in the past year, the overall situation is in a horizontal fluctuation process, which shows that consumer confidence does not seem to rise. As a representative of large consumption, liquor certainly cannot boost market popularity.
The sales of liquor have decreased. However, it gives people the feeling that the trend of liquor stocks seems to be much worse than that of liquor. The reason behind it is very simple. Everyone's expectations for liquor have changed. Of course, the only one who can save liquor seems to be able to wait for the CPI to start. At that time, the increase in liquor sales may bring vitality to the market a first-line rebound.
The highest point of the CSI Liquor Index at 924 is around 13,000 points, and the current latest point is 9,394 points, which is only 1,000 points away from the starting point of 924. This is the market expectation result. It is also a medicine in big consumption. Let's go and see if it is not as bad as liquor. The reason why medicine is relatively strong in consumption is the core of the logic of innovative drugs. The patents of related companies have been valued by foreign markets, which is an important logic for the improvement of the valuation of innovative drugs.
I think the most important thing here is that everyone has given up on the big consumption of liquor. The market seems to have formed a unified consensus on the pessimistic view of liquor, so the power of selling is very strong, causing the liquor index to irrationally downward.
What will liquor go in the future?
From a medium- and long-term perspective, I think there is no need to be too indifferent to the liquor index. China's liquor culture will not disappear due to the continuous decline of liquor. At present, the consumer market is just a sluggish and the market sentiment is unstable, which has appeared in the irrational bearish view of the liquor index. If one day consumption rises, then liquor will likely stabilize.
Of course, one thing must be admitted, that is, the consumption era has changed. Now the market has a new concept, that is, the new consumption era. Representatives of Hong Kong stocks such as Pop Mart, Laopu Gold and Mixue Group, etc. These are new consumption concepts. In the sluggish consumer market, the performance of this new consumption model is continuing to rise. This is the consumption model in the context of the new era. It can be said that it is a subversion of the consumption model of liquor in the past.
I have been thinking that the wheel of history is constantly rotating. Perhaps in a few years, it is likely that it will take a few years. Today's new consumption concept may be replaced by new concepts. The consumption scenarios that appear in different historical periods are very different. Therefore, since liquor represents the consumption model of the past, when investing, I must avoid what is abandoned by the market as much as possible. Even if the CPI rebounds in the future, do not have excessive expectations for the rebound of liquor, but change the concept in a timely manner. New consumption is the new starting point of the consumption era and a new round of consumption investment feast.
Disclaimer: The content in the article is for reference only and does not constitute any operational suggestions or prompts. Please be cautious if there are risks in the stock market and investment!
