On June 9, the Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice stating that there have been many factors that have affected market instability in the recent period, and precious metal prices fluctuated violently. All members are asked to improve their awareness of risk prevention, continue to make risk emergency plans, and maintain the smooth operation of the market. At the same time, investors are reminded to do a good job in risk prevention, control positions reasonably, and invest rationally.
On the news, the trend of COMEX gold and silver diverged last week. The golden weekly line closed in the inverse "T" pattern, and it fell continuously after rising last Monday, showing certain adjustment pressure; silver closed out a large positive column and hit a new high in more than 13 years, reflecting its upward breakthrough and strong pattern.
Today, COMEX gold fell slightly by 0.14% to $3,342/oz, with an intraday low of $3,313.1/oz. Meanwhile, COMEX silver rose 0.82% to $36.435/ounce, reaching a high of $36.605/ounce intraday, continuing to hit a record high.
In this regard, Xia Yingying, head of the Nanhua Futures Precious Metals New Energy Research Group, analyzed to the International Financial News that from the perspective of influencing factors, in terms of trade tariffs, the US White House announced that from June 4, the tariffs on steel and aluminum products imported from all trading partners except the UK will be raised from the current 25% to 50%. In terms of data, the number of Jolts jobs in the United States in April was higher than expected, and the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in May was higher than expected, showing the resilience of the US labor market. At the same time, the growth rate of hourly wages exceeded expectations reflects the severe inflationary pressure, which greatly weakened the expectation of interest rate cuts and dragged down gold prices. In contrast, Xia Yingying further pointed out that under the support of good economic data, industrial demand drives silver prices to rise, which in turn leads to a narrowing of the gold-silver ratio. From the valuation perspective, since late May, the gold-silver ratio has been at a high level, and silver investment demand has accelerated inflows, and the upward breakthrough of platinum prices has also driven silver to strengthen.
Great Wall Futures Research Report Analysis stated that gold is currently in the dual-drive stage of "help-hazard + interest rate cut expectations", and in the short term, we need to be vigilant about the fluctuations caused by repeated data and policies. In the medium and long term, many factors such as uncertainty in geopolitical risks, de-dollarization trends and interest rate cut expectations support gold prices. In addition, we need to pay attention to the impact of US economic data on monetary policy and the progress of tariff policies.
Zheshang Securities Research Report pointed out that the focus is on short-term silver investment opportunities. First, the current gold-silver ratio is still at a historical high, and there is a possibility of mean regression. Second, silver itself has the characteristics of high price elasticity and its overall holdings are relatively concentrated. Third, global central banks are pursuing safe assets in the context of de-dollarization, and the current central bank's behavior is still mainly focusing on increasing purchases of gold. But if there is another catalysis of events similar to the Russian Central Bank's inclusion of silver into reserve assets in the future, it may be beneficial to silver.
