On June 3, the Dutch coalition government, which had been in power for only 11 months, collapsed due to the withdrawal of the Liberal Party (PVV) from refugee policy negotiations. The following is a key analysis of the inside story of the fall of Shaw's cabinet and the political trend in the next few weeks.
The Cabinet collapse
(Note: German Foreign Minister Dobrint recently implemented a similar repatriation policy, and was ruled by the Berlin court on June 2 to violate the EU's Dublin Agreement)
The guardian cabinet urgently took over
Prime Minister Dick Schoff submitted his cabinet resignation to King William Alexander on the evening of the 3rd. For this reason, the king ended his state visit to the Czech Republic early. According to constitutional practice, except for the members of the PVV cabinet, Shaw and other ministers will form a guardian cabinet until the new government is established.
Three major life and death disasters during the political vacuum
- Power boundary game
Parliament is formulating a "Policy Forbidden Zone List", in principle, the guardian cabinet only handles daily affairs. But Shaw made a tough statement at the press conference: security, economy, housing shortages and immigration issues "requires action rather than delay" and will continue to advance. The NATO summit in The Hague at the end of June is imminent, and the Netherlands needs to approve the increase of its defense budget before the summit. There are still variables in whether disputed policies such as refugees, nitrogen emissions, and medical cuts are included in the list of restricted areas. The 10 billion budget battle
The Caretaker's Cabinet must draft the 2026 fiscal budget this summer and submit it to Parliament on September 2019. The Central Planning Bureau’s economic forecast in August will become a key basis.
The October general election is a foregone conclusion
The Election Commission has recommended that the general election be scheduled for October 29 (after the summer recess). The latest poll shows:
Green left-World-Labor (29 seats) surpassed PVV for the first time (28 seats)The Liberal Democratic Party has slightly increased to 26 seatsNSC suffered Waterloo (from 39 seats to 20 seats)The CDU (CDA) emerged from a new force (from 5 seats to 19 seats)As political parties enter the campaign state, the Netherlands will usher in the most fierce political reshuffle after the 2023 general election. Whether the guardian cabinet can obtain military spending authorization before the NATO summit will become a key indicator to test the resilience of the Dutch political system.
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