According to Tianfeng International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo on June 9, on the eve of the opening of Apple's WWDC25 Global Developer Conference, he clearly pointed out that the market's expectations for Apple's AI technology breakthrough should be "half-fold." This industry observer, known as the "strongest Apple analyst on the surface", bluntly stated that although Apple continues to invest in the AI field, due to multiple factors such as technical architecture and team integration, it is unlikely that disruptive innovations at the ChatGPT level will occur during WWDC25.
Contradictory point: The game between heavy investment and conservative strategy
As the world's highest market value technology company, Apple has made frequent moves in the AI field in recent years. From launching the Apple Intelligence suite in 2024, to cooperating with OpenAI to embed ChatGPT into Siri, to applying for AI interaction patents such as "Silent Command" in 2025, its R&D investment continues to increase.
However, Kuo Mingchi's early warning reveals a deep contradiction: Apple's strategic choices in the field of AI seem to be in a dilemma of "both wanted and want" - both wanting to maintain the closedness of the hardware ecosystem and trying to get a share of the AI wave. This conservative strategy directly leads to the implementation of its AI capabilities being much lower than expected. For example, the major upgrade of Siri, originally planned to be launched in 2025, has been postponed to 2026.
Influence: Competitors' "hunting" and user churn risk
When Apple moves cautiously in the AI track, its competitors are accelerating overtaking. Google plans to embed Gemini AI into Android devices in 2025, Amazon launches a paid version of Alexa AI service, and Microsoft realizes full AI in office scenarios through Copilot.
This competitive pressure has emerged in the capital market: Apple's stock price has fallen 18% year-on-year, and has performed only better than Tesla among the seven technology giants. What is more wary of is that users' patience with Apple AI is exhausted - the Apple Intelligence feature demonstrated by WWDC last year is too far from the actual experience, and even triggered a class action lawsuit.
Trend Insight: Can terminal AI become the key to breaking the deadlock?
Faced with pressure, Apple seems to be betting on terminal AI. During WWDC25, the real-time translation, sentiment tracking and other functions that iOS 26 may launch, as well as the AirPods' "silent command" technology, all reflect its "privacy first" local AI strategy.
Although this strategy can avoid data security risks, it faces hardware performance bottlenecks - the memory limitations of iPhone 16 may lead to inefficiency in local big models. In the long run, if Apple cannot make breakthroughs in computing power reserves and ecological opening, its "AI assistant" may become an edge function, and the dominance of iPhone will also be challenged by manufacturers such as Huawei and Samsung.
When the spotlight of WWDC25 comes on, can Apple deliver a "successful answer" in the field of AI? The scoring criteria given by Guo Mingchi are: clearly explain the development time course of AI functions and the terminal implementation path. But for users, what they are more concerned about is: today when ChatGPT can write code smoothly and Google Assistant can control smart homes, is Apple's AI "stood by the big move" or is it really lagging behind?
(Content source: Global Tech, First Financial, Interface News; Data reference: Wind, Canalys, Diandian Data)
