On June 6, 2025, Wagner Group suddenly announced the end of its military mission in Mali, Africa, and all personnel were withdrawn to Russia. This time point was chosen very subtle, just after Ukraine's "Spider Web Operation" exploded the Crimea Bridge and the second round of armistice negotiations between Russia and Ukraine collapsed. Putin obviously wasn't in the mood to waste any more, so he directly transferred this "Ace" back to the chessboard. This mercenary, labeled as a "terrorist organization" by the EU, has become Russia's latest bargaining chip to break the battlefield deadlock.
The recent attacks in Ukraine did step on the Russian red line. The wave of drone raids on June 1 directly triggered Russia's strategic nuclear deterrence, which is unacceptable to any major power, so the next day the Russian army began to bomb Kiev, and even the Ukrainian Army Commander Delapat lost his job. Putin directly characterized Ukraine as a "terrorist" on TV and said, "There is nothing to talk about." Even Trump and Putin let it go after the phone call: "Ukraine gave Putin the reason to bombard them hard." In this atmosphere, Wagner's return is like throwing a match to a powder barrel - a hard bone that the Russian regular army cannot chew, and now it is left to these "professionals" to chew.
Wagner does have some evil skills when he should say it. In the Battle of Bachmut, they used the "human bomb" style to reliably increase the firepower coverage by infiltration by small commandos, and forced the city like a meat grinder. Russian military expert Dandekinkook and the regular army cooperated with the "new urban warfare model" in Soledal. What's even more amazing is their source of troops. Retired special forces are mixed with prison prisoners, specializing in tragic destruction and psychological warfare behind enemy lines.
When the Soleidar was attacked in 2023, it was only when the team touched the Ukrainian defense line to create chaos. What made the Russian Ministry of Defense most hurt was logistics - Prigo Ren scolded the Ministry of Defense every day to slap 70% of its ammunition, but he could still fight through private channels. This kind of wild way of survival ability is really impossible to learn the regular army.
The current battlefield situation is actually beneficial to Russia. The Russian southern cluster had just taken down the village of Zaria and cut off the Ukrainian army's route to send supplies to Zaroer; the 90th Tank Division even rushed into the hinterland of Ukraine. Ukraine has to fill in 1,360 soldiers every day, and its reserve force is almost over. But the Ukrainian army relied on Western intelligence and long-range firepower to attack the Russian army's logistics weaknesses. This stalemate is just in need of Wagner, a "battlefield rat" who can penetrate behind enemy lines to break the deadlock.
The strategic intention of transferring back to Wagner is almost written out. Many intelligence points to the Russian army's desire to control the left bank of the Dnieper River. Wagner is most likely to be thrown to cut off Odessa-Lviv, the major artery of Western military aid, and they wanted to do this job last year but they did not do it. German media also revealed their fierce move to "behead and show public" when counter-terrorism in Mali. This psychological warfare may be more effective than missiles for the Ukrainian army, which has long been shadowed. Don’t forget that Belarus is still squatting with some Wagners, who can join forces with Chechen soldiers at any time to scare the Polish-Lithuanian direction, making NATO dare not act rashly.
But this "Ace" also has its own troubles. Since Prigogen broke up with the Russian Ministry of Defense in 2023, Wagner has refused to sign the Ministry of Defense service contract. Who will follow the command now when I come back? Don't fight on the front line first. The troops were not as strong as before. The African troops dropped from the peak of 30,000 to 20,000. Last year, he was ambushed in Maritin Zawaten, reimbursing more than 80 people at one time. Not to mention that the EU has long been labeled as a "terrorist organization" for them, and too much action may bring new sanctions.
Prigoren
Wagner's return is like a signal flare before the general attack. Cooperating with the Russian army's in-depth advancement in Dongwu, coupled with Putin's tough statement of "never tolerated", the battlefield in the summer of 2025 is likely to be true.
The goal of the decisive battle is clear: eat up the main force in Wudong and completely cut off the Dnieper River channel. This gamble not only tests the Russian army's fist, but also tests the depth of the Western military aid system. If Wagner could really get behind the Ukrainian army and make a big comeback, this bad battle that had been fought for three years might really come to an end - I just don’t know what the Ukrainians felt when they received this "summer surprise".
Source: Wagner Group Withdraws—2025-06-09 Reference News
