In the first week of June, the gold market experienced fierce fighting between ice and fire, fear and greed coexist, danger and opportunity collided, and the differences between bulls and bears further intensified.
The US non-farm data in May slightly exceeded market expectations, and the previous value was downgraded to 147,000 people, which was much higher than the ADP data in May, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%.
In terms of overall employment data, it is lukewarm, and there is no sign of further economic recession, nor does it enhance the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts. After the non-farm data, the probability of interest rate cuts has been reduced, which means that the time for the first rate cut is delayed.
A few days ago, Trump and Musk "breaked", accusing each other and attacking each other almost personally. The incident itself was because the large-scale tax and expenditure bill passed by the House of Representatives was publicly opposed by Musk.
The reason is that the passage of this bill will increase the debt burden of the United States. Previously, the "Ministry of Government Efficiency" led by Musk was to reduce spending and debts in various ways. What is the result? The debt increased again, which aroused Musk's dissatisfaction and eventually broke down.
Musk expressed dissatisfaction with Trump. Trump warned Musk that the breakdown of the relationship between the two involved their respective chains of interests. From this perspective, increasing market risk aversion is theoretically beneficial to gold.
Of course, this is just an appearance, and each has its own considerations behind it. The purpose is to prepare for 3.5 years later (the specific content and impact will be detailed in our evening meeting).
In addition, the second round of China-US talks will be held in London today, with the United States sending officials from trade, commerce and finance to attend together to help reach a phased agreement.
The negotiations themselves are to work hard to ease trade tensions and suspend some restrictions? Extend the tariff negotiation cycle? Even achieving some results? Wait, the tight nerves in the market will be eased. This move, in theory, is unfavorable to the rise of gold prices.
However, the central bank released the latest gold reserve data showing that as of the end of last month, my country's gold reserves were 73.83 million ounces (about 2296.37 tons), an increase of 60,000 ounces (about 1.86 tons) month-on-month, the seventh consecutive month of gold increase.
Optimize the international reserve structure and steadily promote the internationalization of currency, and the central bank's increase in gold holdings is still the general direction.
Last Friday, the US dollar index rebounded strongly, and finally stabilized its gains, and basically recovered the loss of the weekly decline. The next target is still the 100 mark. If you break through and stand firm, you may usher in a rebound, and vice versa.
After the operation last week, the gold market has once again experienced two-level differentiation, with weak technical aspects and supported fundamentals. Which one is right and who is wrong? Finally, the direction you go out can be revealed, but it was too late.
The central bank's increase in holdings is the general direction. No matter how much the quantity is, the breakthrough of silver to form a technical upward pattern is the general trend. First, gold, then silver. Even if it is silver's turn, gold will not adjust anywhere, and it is even more impossible to reverse the upward trend. Our view is that we are technically bearish, but we do not short. We are currently in the adjustment stage in the process of rising, but there is a positive event, and the gold price will rise rapidly.
Affected by non-agricultural data last Friday, it continued to decline, with the lowest intraday low of nearly 3300 mark, which closed lower, and a weak bearish trend was technically formed. In addition, there was no support for risk events on the weekend, so it seemed inevitable that the inertia decline on Monday was inevitable.
As of the morning, gold prices have fallen below 3293, and the further support below is located in the area of 3280. It is not certain whether it can reach it. In short, we will not short and can stabilize. The primary pressure above is at 3330, and the further pressure is at 3350. There is no leverage, including those who take things, you can seize the opportunity to pull back. What you have held before is just patiently waiting for time to change space.
(The above sharing is purely personal opinion and does not constitute practical operation suggestions. Financial management is risky, and you must bear the profit and loss at your own risk)
