In previous articles, Lichangjun sighed that "Twenty years of stock trading, the most difficult thing is to short positions", which is what I said in my heart and has also resonated with many friends.
Just say that the market has pressure on the top and support from the bottom in recent times, it seems that opportunities are taking turns to happen, and it really becomes profit. It is really difficult! Watching the show in a short position is actually a better choice. Lichangjun is also working hard. He has been short for a while, but he still has not practiced properly and can't help it. He bought some coal stocks during the trading session on Friday. The position is not heavy, only 20%.
Speaking of which, the senior title of Lichangjun is really not a prank! Friday's buying action successfully pushed the stock price to a turning point, and then began to fall all the way. Good, it turns out that the main force is really short of the little money of Lichangjun!
Specifically, when buying stocks this time, Lichangjun fell in love with Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225.SH). There are no recommendations or suggestions here. As a senior reverse indicator, Lichangjun's choice is likely to be wrong. Friends, please don't follow the example and just laugh it off.
Friends who are familiar with Lichangjun should still remember that in early May, Lichangjun was still a fan of Yankuang Energy (600188.SH, 1171.HK). Later, he made a little profit and sold it with dividends. The main reason for selling is that the dividend tax collected from the H shares you hold is too high, and your heart is bleeding.
This time I became interested in Shaanxi Coal Industry, not a sudden idea. When I was optimistic about Yancoal Energy more than a month ago, Lichangjun also mentioned in the article that the resource endowment of Shaanxi coal industry can be called "God's reward for food". The fact is that relying on the thick layer of shallow high-calorie coal seam, it is like God putting a layer of chocolate on the piece of the earth, which has brought an unparalleled cost advantage to Shaanxi Coal Industry, and the cost of mining ton of coal is the lowest in the entire market.
So that, under the condition that the debt-to-asset ratio is only 40%, the ROE remains above 20% for a long time. Looking at the entire A-share market, how many companies can there be?
From the financial analysis perspective, the advantages of low cost are not only reflected in profit margins, but also in the context of coal prices under pressure, and lower performance elasticity. In the first quarter of this year, Shaanxi Coal Industry's net profit attributable to shareholders only fell by 14.98%. How strong is this pressure resistance? Even China Shenhua (601088.SH), which has thick eyebrows and big eyes, has dropped by 28.9%!
In fact, Shaanxi Coal Industry and China Shenhua share the same coal field, namely Shenfu-Dongsheng Coal Field, while Shaanxi Coal Mine is relatively new overall, and it is expected to maintain a low-cost advantage over a longer period of time in the future. At the same time, the sales area of Shaanxi Coal is misaligned with Shenhua and has no direct competition with Shenhua. With the deepening of energy transformation, it has become a market consensus that the medium- and long-term demand for coal has declined. As a few low-cost suppliers in their respective regions, Shaanxi Coal and Shenhua have the most comfortable life.
From the valuation point of view, China Shenhua's current PE in 2025 is about 15 times, while Shaanxi's coal industry is only 10 times, which is quite a difference.
Overall, the operation of buying Shaanxi coal industry, whether it is good or bad, can sleep. It is naturally happy when it rises, and there is still room for a low position to replenish your position when it falls. At worst, you can eat nearly 7% of the dividend. What's wrong with being uneasy?
