Russia-Ukraine negotiations came to an end with the raid on the four major strategic airports of Russia and Russia's retaliatory bombardment of the entire Ukraine - since neither side has the will to stop, it is more conducive to negotiations on the battlefield, let alone "things that cannot be obtained on the battlefield are even more impossible to get on the negotiation table" The simplest truth everyone knows.
But the strength of both sides is very different if they continue to fight - the Russian economy is currently dealing with a series of accumulated problems that may hinder its ability to produce missiles and other weapons used to attack Ukraine. Even if European and American countries continue to maintain the current sanctions on Russia, it will not exhaust the financial resources in Russia - it has enough financial resources to even enable it to continue to maintain the war against Ukraine for at least another three years. Although the Russian economy is now facing a sluggish state after a period of "high-speed growth in energy exports" and problems continue to accumulate, which may affect its ability to produce missiles and other weapons used to attack Ukraine, the above conclusion remains true.
These findings come from a new report by the Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the authors simulate three possible future scenarios and evaluate the impact of each scenario on the aggressor's economy.
According to the summary of the report provided to the media, the three scenarios are as follows:
- Europe and the United States maintain current sanctions against Russia: Russia will maintain sufficient fiscal reserves to continue its war against Ukraine for at least another three years. Europe and the United States partially relax sanctions: Russia's overall macroeconomic situation will remain basically the same, but it will gain additional resources to expand its military operations. Europe and the United States have significantly strengthened sanctions: Russia will quickly lose the resources needed to continue the war, which may force the Russian government to engage in real negotiations.
CSIS experts stressed that in all scenarios, the Russian economy will remain "constrained but not crushed". They also warned against assuming that economic pressure alone could change the behavior of the Russian government, as Russia seemed committed to a long-term confrontation with the West.
