The heavy positive news on the weekend directly made the opening of the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets show a large volume increase. As of noon closing, we saw that compared with the previous trading day, the transaction volume of the A-share market today has already entered the market with 80 billion yuan of incremental funds. This means that today is obviously a high-end market.
It also effectively broke through 3400 points during the session, and it has fallen back to around 3396 points. From a technical point of view, the pressure level above 3400 points is gradually weakening, but from the perspective of historical macro cycles, the trapped range above 3400 points is still as high as 4 to 8 trillion.
This means that if the incremental capital entry of about 500 billion or 100 billion is not present, it is difficult to effectively break through 3400 points in the short term and successfully stand firm again.
In the past, after each wave broke through 3400 points, it formed a corresponding decline in the form of large volume, forming a phased high point in the short term, and then showed a volatile pullback.
So should you run after breaking through 3400 points today?
I personally think that I can continue to wait and see. This wave of rise may be a big surprise. Among the good news on the weekend, the expected positive news of the second round of negotiations between China and the United States will support the current sharp rise in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets. The long-term depreciation trend of the US dollar and the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will drive international funds to re-enter the market, which is beneficial to the current A-share market.
Although this round of fundamentals has not shown a significant change, it has improved significantly in subsequent expectations and corresponding bottom support, and there is still a strong support of 3,300 points downward, which will gradually weaken the selling pressure and pressure level above.
So this week's A-shares are very critical. It depends on whether they can successfully stand firm at 3,400 points under the positive news and the entry of incremental funds. If they can successfully stand firm and keep fluctuating above 3,400 points, it is highly likely that they will sprint to 3,600 points in the second half of this year.
