Trend Analysis
• Fundamentals:
◦ Supply: The weather in the United States soybean production areas is good and the sowing progress is fast, and it is the peak period when imported South American soybeans arrive in Hong Kong. The oil plant's soybean pressing volume is high, soybean meal production is large, and the supply is sufficient. The subsequent import of soybeans will still arrive in Hong Kong in June-August, and supply pressure will continue to exist.
◦ Demand: Terminal demand is relatively stable, with no obvious signs of growth, and some demand may decline with factors such as school holidays.
◦ Cost: The continuous decline in soybeans in the US market has led to a decline in the cost of imported soybeans, weakening cost-side support.
• Technical side: June 6th day and night closing 3009, but judging from the recent overall trend, the main 2509 contract had opened low and closed low, and closed at 2935 yuan/ton on June 3, down 31 yuan/ton, a drop of 1.05%. The technical indicators of each cycle are different in the short term, and some cycle moving average systems are short-selling. MACD indicators and other indicators show that short-selling momentum are dominant, but some people also believe that there is a competition near a certain support level.
Investment advice
• Short-term operations:
◦ Range operation ideas: Pay attention to the range 2930 - 3000. If the price rebounds to around 3000 and encounters obstacles, you can try short with a light position and look at the support near 2930; if the price falls back to 2930 - 2960 and stabilizes, you can try long with a light position and set the stop loss below the support level, and look at the pressure breakthrough near 3000.
◦ Trend operation ideas: The overall trend is currently short, but you need to pay attention to the breakthrough of key positions. If the price effectively breaks down 2930, you can follow the trend and chase short positions and set a stop loss of about 2960; if the price breaks through 3000 and stands firmly, you can consider chasing long positions with a light position and stop loss of about 2970.
• Position control: Single-type positions are controlled within 5%, stop loss is strictly set, and the stop loss range is 1% - 3%, avoid excessive trading and counter-trend trading.
• Risk warning: Pay attention to changes in the weather in the US soybeans. If there is an adverse weather speculation, it may drive price increases; pay attention to the impact of changes in policy factors such as Sino-US trade relations on soybean imports and soybean meal markets; and the impact of dynamic changes in fundamental data such as oil plant inventory and downstream demand on prices.
The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors must operate cautiously based on their actual situation such as their risk tolerance.
