Behind London's closed door, a high-level negotiation between China and the United States that has touched the nerves of the global industrial chain is fiercely underway. The US delegation consists of Becente, Commerce Secretary Lutnik and Trade Representatives. The closed-door confrontation has been confirmed to be extended to Monday night or even Tuesday London time.
White House Economic Advisor Hasette bluntly said: The core demand of the US side is to reach an agreement with China in the rare earth field and implement the consensus reached by the heads of state between the two countries. The so-called "chip for rare earths" has become a nearly public bargaining chip on the table.Even Trump predicted with confidence that "the talks will go smoothly."
U.S. negotiators: Finance Minister Becent, Commerce Secretary Lutnik and Trade Representative Greer
However, a few pictures in the hands of the United States">">"Ace" is fading faster.
Aero engine supply is cut off? China has already prepared alternatives; is semiconductor regulation trying to lock down China's AI development? The reality is that China's leading companies have hoarded a large number of NVIDIA chips, and the entire industrial strategy is turning to an application layer that emphasizes reasoning and neglects training. Combined with the rise of domestic chips, the external blockade effect has been greatly weakened.
What really makes the global industry nervous is the "rare earth permanent magnet" ace in China's hands.
The lifeblood of the global automobile industry—Permanent magnets are almost entirely dependent on Chinese supplies. If China cuts off supply, unless the vehicle production line quickly moves into China, the global automobile manufacturing industry will face the risk of shock.
It is no accident that Trump's confidant Lutnik entered the core negotiation circle for the first time as the Secretary of Commerce. A keen observer points out the mystery: This is no longer a simple bilateral game, but a trilateral struggle between Trump's MAGA forces, Wall Street Capital and China.
The Wall Street giants have previously visited China in intensively to pave the way, and Becente led the first round of negotiations. The Trump team competes with the traditional establishment in essence to deal with China's trade.
Recalling his first term, 94% of the so-called "bottleneck" ban was finally released through licenses, including some Huawei-related projects. The essence of American business logic lies in "over-handed oil", and the core purpose is to share equal interests.
Just as the negotiations were in a stalemate, China released May foreign trade data: the total value of imports and exports increased by 2.7%, and exports increased by 6.3% against the trend. What is dazzling is that exports to the United States plummeted by 34.5% year-on-year, while exports to other major markets generally exceeded 10%. Choosing to release this data at this moment is to announce to the world that the Chinese market is by no means unilateral dependence. Even if 30% of the US orders are lost, China's foreign trade engine still roars strongly.
The global capital market invested confidence in this - A-shares broke through 3400 points today, closing accurately in the range of 3397-3399, and the national team's ability to control the market was fully demonstrated.
When the Ming card of "chip for rare earths" is on the London negotiating table, the real chess game is the redistribution of interests of the three forces.
China holds the lifeblood of rare earths, backed by tenacious trade data and capital market confidence. In this game of reshaping the global supply chain, every step of the move is a greater change in the pattern than trade itself.
The results of the negotiation will reveal: Who can win the key chips that define future rules in this complex three-party chess game.
