The performance of A-shares today was not strong, but the Shanghai Composite Index successfully broke through 3400 points, and it has been stable above 3400 points until the end of the afternoon trading today. Judging from the entry of incremental funds, the turnover volume of the two markets has shrunk to a certain extent today. It is estimated that the shrinkage of the whole day may reach as high as 50 billion to 60 billion, but it will eventually remain above 1.2 trillion.
Many friends may lament that after the Shanghai Composite Index successfully broke through 3400 points, their personal account remained near 2800 points and did not make any profit.
What is the reason for this?
I personally think that the Shanghai Composite Index does have certain index distortion on the one hand, especially the pull-up effect of the financial weight sector is very obvious, which can reflect the effect of protecting the market. Today, the banking sector still showed a 1% surge, which is a very obvious market for pulling the index but not individual stocks. If you only look at the Shanghai Composite Index, investors who bought around 3,400 points should have basically recovered their capital, but the difference in return for the initial capital recovery is basically maintained at an average of about 15% to 20%.
So I prefer to look at the current ChiNext Index, which has a smaller degree of distortion than the Shanghai Composite Index. The ChiNext Index has not yet successfully exceeded 2100 points, and may maintain a volatile market in the future.
From the perspective of the entire market in the first half of this year, I am more inclined to continue to protect the market by the national team, gradually increasing the bottom to above 3300 points. At present, it is also intentional or subsequently stable at 3400 points. Of course, it will take a certain time period, but the money-making effect of individual stocks does not seem to be obvious, and it may run through a period of time period in the second half of this year. This time period that is not profitable is reflected in the rise in the index weight, but the stock account does not recover significantly.
When can this situation be changed?
Individuals prefer that the time period is in September, which is the last quarter of this year, the Federal Reserve will maintain a 100% interest rate cut. After the interest rate cut cycle begins, global capital will accelerate its flow. At that time, the depreciation of the US dollar and the appreciation of the RMB will attract more funds to enter the market, forming a wave of rising effects. The profit of individual stocks should be more obvious from that time, especially friends who have a heavy holding in technology and consumer stocks.
