HuaChuang Food and Drink pointed out in its research report: In terms of wholesale price expectations, it is expected that Pumao wholesale price will still bottom out, but considering the diversification of Moutai's channels and improved management capabilities, and from the ten-year compound quantitative calculation of indicators such as M2 and per capita disposable income in the last round of cycles, we judge that the bottom of this round of Pumao price should be around 2,000 yuan, and the rhythm is expected to usher in a bottoming out fluctuation after the Spring Festival. ”
Yesterday, the small negative line of the liquor sector adjusted, and it seemed like it was no big deal, but the result! It actually hit a recent new low! This trend is like an old man drunk, shaking, but not falling, and he also gave you a warning from time to time! What is the key? Since the big positive line in May, it has gone down one side, without a decent rebound signal at all! Didn’t we always say that liquor is oversold? What’s the result? After oversold, it is still oversold! Now there is no sign of stabilization!
Although I said that liquor will rebound sooner or later, looking at the continuous decline, do you dare to bet on a rebound? The problem is big! The key is that you don’t know when it will stop! Just like two weeks ago, it broke again. If you wanted to take advantage of the situation and enter the market to grab the rebound, even if it really had a big positive line today, it would probably be enough for you to protect your capital. The previous loss will be wasted! What is the difference between buying this bottom and playing with a flying knife? It is purely to give away the head! At this time, it is better to observe honestly to see if the liquor sector really can’t hold on and the selling pressure is exhausted?
What about today? Under the shadow of the upper shadow line that surged and fell last Friday, it continued to look for support. The new low was a hit, but the lower shadow line that rebounded was short and weak! What does this mean? It means that there are not many people who want to buy at the bottom and the support is not enough! If it can rebound and close up, then maybe the short-term signal of acceptance has appeared. If there is really funds willing to be a buyer, you may try it. But! If today is still a small negative line, the probability of continuing to go down tomorrow and the day after tomorrow is quite large!
As a trend investor, even though he knows that this is a downward channel and still insists on participating, it can only be said that you have not achieved the unity of knowledge and action. This kind of rebound has too much risk, and I dare not touch it! Waiting and watching is my only strategy for liquor now!
——After reading it, the funds make a lot of money! ——
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