Zhuochuang Information Analyst Zheng Mingya
[Introduction] In this cycle, the center of gravity of crude oil futures prices moved up, and the price of orchid charcoal rose, supporting the slow rise of medium-temperature coal tar prices, and the cost of hydrogenation increased. The price of refined oil rose during the week, driving a small increase in the prices of medium-temperature coal tar hydrogenation products. However, due to the increase in the comprehensive liquid yield of medium-temperature coal tar hydrogenation products, the profit of medium-temperature coal tar hydrogenation fell slightly.
Before the meeting between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine air strikes a certain European country, causing sudden tensions. The United States expressed its ignorance of this. The market's expectations for the prospects of the Russian-Ukraine peace negotiations have cooled down, and the geopolitical premium has reappeared, supporting the strong fluctuation of oil prices; however, OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, has increased production for two consecutive months, with a total daily increase of 2.8 million barrels from May to June, and the average daily increase in July was planned to expand by 411,000 barrels, exceeding market expectations, limiting the upward action of oil prices; in addition, the US small non-agricultural data is weak, the market's concerns about the economic recession have risen again, and the upward trend of oil prices has been blocked. This week, the U.S. crude oil fluctuation range is between US$60-64/barrel, with a slight increase in the center of gravity.
Crude oil has risen, and the new round of domestic retail price limits has been implemented as scheduled. Driven by multiple positive news, the overall trading atmosphere is relatively active. As the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approaches, downstream and terminal operators have significantly increased their replenishment demand and their purchasing enthusiasm has increased significantly. Against this background, Lanchar Factory took advantage of the opportunity to actively support prices and tried to further push the price up in order to achieve higher profit margins. This series of actions jointly promoted the slow upward movement of the price center, and the market showed a steady and positive operating trend. As of the closing on June 5, the market price of China-Temperature Coal Tar in Shaanxi was 2870-2910 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the closing price of the previous period; the average price this week was 2865 yuan/ton, up 0.70% from the average price of the previous period. As of the close of June 8, the price of medium-temperature coal tar in Shaanxi was 3,070 yuan/ton, an increase of 289 yuan/ton from last week.
Under this influence, the hydrogenation cost of medium-temperature coal tar increased to 4496 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton from the previous period.
This week is the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. During the holiday, residents' travel activities have increased significantly, and the activity radius has expanded significantly, which has driven a slight improvement in the marginal demand for gasoline. After the holiday, the downstream market has certain replenishment support, but it is mainly based on small orders and urgent needs to replenish goods, and the overall transaction volume has not increased significantly. Boosted by rising international crude oil prices, the latest retail price limit for refined oil has been slightly raised, bringing certain positive sentiment to the domestic market. However, in the long run, the domestic gasoline and diesel market lacks substantial positive news support, and the overall operation is still mainly focused on stable operation. In terms of diesel, some areas have entered the rainy season. The rainy weather has had a certain impact on the start rate of industrial and mining infrastructure projects, and may suppress some diesel demand in the short term. However, with the approaching of the "6.18" e-commerce promotion, the number of centralized stocking activities of buyers has increased, and the logistics and transportation industry has performed relatively actively, which has provided effective support for diesel demand to a certain extent. Overall, despite the influence of regional and seasonal factors, diesel demand has remained relatively stable overall, and the market trading atmosphere tends to be rational. This week, the average price of 92# gasoline in China was 7709 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan/ton from the previous period, and the average price of 0# diesel was 6792 yuan/ton, up 94 yuan/ton from the previous period.
Under the influence of the finished product trend, the domestic medium-temperature coal tar product prices have increased slightly this week, with naphtha mostly at 7,300 yuan/ton, and diesel component prices mostly at 6,300 yuan/ton. However, based on the comprehensive liquid yield of the medium-temperature coal tar hydrogenation device, the total liquid product price this week was 4,785 yuan/ton, an increase of only 46 yuan/ton from last week. Because the overall increase in liquids is not as good as the increase in cost, domestic medium-temperature coal tar hydrogenation profit fell slightly this week. As of June 5, Zhuochuang Information calculated that the hydrogenation profit of medium-temperature coal tar was 289 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 9 yuan/ton from last week.
